18 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF Allsvenskan prediction & result

Hitachi Energy Arena, Vasteras
Referee: Fredrik Klitte
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Vasteras SK FK 1-0 Mjallby AIF.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Vasteras SK FK, 26% draw, 27% Mjallby AIF — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vasteras SK FK at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vasteras SK FK96%Draw4%Mjallby AIF0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
Jeppe Kjaer Jensen
⚽Axel Sountonoma Taonsaassist: Abdelrahman Saidi
20'
Abdelrahman Saidi
35'
35'
Tony Miettinen
45'
🔁Olle Lindbergout: Áki Samuelsen
🔁Jack Tagessonout: Frédéric Nsabiyumva
45'
56'
🔁Abdullah Iqbalout: Mads Enggard
77'
🔁Max Nielsenout: Ludvig Tidstrand
🔁Mattias Hellisdalout: Jonathan Ring
78'
🔁Abdelrahman Saidiout: karl gunnarsson
78'
🔁Mamadou Diagneout: Peter Amoran
90+1'
90+6'
Ludvig Tidstrand

Match stats — Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF

52%Possession48%
22Shots11
9On target3
4Corners5
1.51xG0.88

Goals against chances

Vasteras SK FK1 from 1.51 xGless than the chances were worth
Mjallby AIF0 from 0.88 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Vasteras SK FK 3-4-3
  • 1A. FagerströmG
  • 24J. TagessonD
  • 4P. BondeD
  • 2H. MagnussonD
  • 11S. GefvertM
  • 30M. HellisdalM
  • 8M. DiagneM
  • 15J. KarlssonM
  • 19J. MagnussonF
  • 7A. BoudahF
  • 17A. TaonsaF
Substitutes
  • 5K. GunnarssonM
  • 3M. BaggesenD
  • 23P. AmoranD
  • 21V. WernerssonD
  • 16Bonaventure LendambiF
  • 18F. NsabiyumvaD
  • 10J. RingF
  • 20M. LjungqvistD
  • 33Alvin KvistqG
Coach: Alexander Rubin
Mjallby AIF 4-1-4-1
  • 35A. LundinG
  • 33T. MiettinenD
  • 4A. NorénD
  • 24T. PetterssonD
  • 5Abdullah IqbalD
  • 22J. GustavssonM
  • 14Villiam GranathM
  • 10J. KjærM
  • 29Olle LindbergM
  • 25M. NielsenM
  • 18J. BergströmF
Substitutes
  • 3M. AgnarssonD
  • 6M. EnggårdM
  • 7V. GustafsonM
  • 1S. HansenG
  • 26I. HoffmannD
  • 23Á. SamuelsenF
  • 2L. SvanbergD
  • 27L. TidstrandM
  • 39R. LeanderssonM
Coach: A. Brännström

Form going into Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF

Vasteras SK FK

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to IFK Goteborg9 October 2026
  • W2-0Malmo FF19 September 2026
  • W4-1away to AIK Stockholm12 September 2026
  • L0-1Sirius5 September 2026
  • W3-1away to BK Hacken29 August 2026

Mjallby AIF

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Inter Club d'Escaldes15 October 2026
  • D1-1Degerfors IF10 October 2026
  • L0-3Gais20 September 2026
  • D1-1away to AIK Stockholm16 September 2026
  • D1-1away to BK Hacken11 September 2026

What these results say

  • Vasteras SK FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Mjallby AIF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Mjallby AIF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Mjallby AIF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Vasteras SK FK2813694038+245
12Mjallby AIF28610123043-1328

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF

  • 17 July 2026Mjallby AIF 0–0 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
  • 5 October 2024Mjallby AIF 2–1 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
  • 25 April 2024Vasteras SK FK 2–1 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
  • 25 February 2024Mjallby AIF 2–0 Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen
  • 19 October 2019Vasteras SK FK 2–2 Mjallby AIFSuperettan
  • 13 April 2019Mjallby AIF 2–1 Vasteras SK FKSuperettan

Leading scorers: Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF

Vasteras SK FK

GoalsAssists

  • A. Taonsa102
  • M. Ladefoged92

Mjallby AIF

GoalsAssists

  • J. Bergström100

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Vasteras SK FK beat Mjallby AIF 1–0. The model had made a win for Vasteras SK FK its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Axel Sountonoma Taonsa 20' for Vasteras SK FK. On expected goals it finished 1.51–0.88.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vasteras SK FK a 7.4% chance to finish in the top four: 11.0% after a win, 4.1% after a draw, 1.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.0%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

For Mjallby AIF the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.9% going in: 1.7% after a win, 5.3% after a draw, 8.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.0%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Vasteras SK FK v Mjallby AIF has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 47% / 26% / 27%: the biggest move is Vasteras SK FK's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Vasteras SK FK win47%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Mjallby AIF win27%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.