Sirius vs IF Elfsborg Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: Sirius 2-2 IF Elfsborg.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Sirius, 25% draw, 30% IF Elfsborg — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Sirius at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sirius vs IF Elfsborg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34D. CelicG
- 5H. CastegrenD
- 2Mohamed SoumahD
- 4T. AnkerD
- 22O. KrusnellD
- 10M. HeierM
- 6M. LindbergM
- 7J. PerssonM
- 24V. SvenssonM
- 11I. BjerkeboM
- 29Ake AnderssonF
- 1I. DiawaraG
- 20V. EkströmD
- 17N. JönssonF
- 16O. LiimattaM
- 21C. NildénM
- 15S. SandbergD
- 30Z. VancsaM
- 18A. WikmanM
- 25O. AdinduF
- 31I. PetterssonG
- 16A. JensenD
- 6R. WikströmD
- 4T. IsherwoodD
- 23N. HultD
- 19J. BeckM
- 18J. MagnússonM
- 29M. KamaraM
- 25A. SigurpálssonM
- 10S. OlssonM
- 21L. ÃstmanF
- 5O. NordvallM
- 12T. SanderG
- 11T. SilverholtF
- 9A. ZeneliM
- 22D. KrasniqiF
- 8S. HolménD
- 15S. HedlundM
- 17P. FrickF
- 3J. EsengaD
Form going into Sirius vs IF Elfsborg
Sirius
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Gais10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Orgryte IS19 September 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF14 September 2026
- W1-0away to Vasteras SK FK5 September 2026
- L0-1Malmo FF31 August 2026
IF Elfsborg
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Halmstad12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Djurgardens IF20 September 2026
- W1-0Kalmar FF13 September 2026
- L1-2away to IF Brommapojkarna6 September 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF29 August 2026
What these results say
- Sirius won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sirius scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sirius had two goals or fewer.
- IF Elfsborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- IF Elfsborg won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sirius | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 58 | 35 | +23 | 58 |
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 42 | 31 | +11 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sirius vs IF Elfsborg
- 19 July 2026IF Elfsborg 1–3 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 8 March 2026IF Elfsborg 1–2 SiriusSvenska Cupen
- 26 October 2025Sirius 4–0 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
- 23 April 2025IF Elfsborg 4–3 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 6 October 2024Sirius 4–1 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
- 29 April 2024IF Elfsborg 2–0 SiriusAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Sirius and IF Elfsborg
Sirius
GoalsAssists
- I. Bjerkebo157
- R. Ure152
IF Elfsborg
GoalsAssists
- L. Ãstman112
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sirius and IF Elfsborg drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Sirius at 45% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Julius Beck 20' for IF Elfsborg, Joakim Persson 70' for Sirius, Joakim Persson 73' for Sirius, Leo Hakan Ostman 87' for IF Elfsborg. On expected goals it finished 0.96–1.24.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sirius a 85.3% chance to finish top of the regular season: 91.9% after a win, 82.4% after a draw, 76.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 82.4%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.
For IF Elfsborg the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 41.8% going in: 58.1% after a win, 41.2% after a draw, 33.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 41.2%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sirius v IF Elfsborg has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 25% / 30%: the biggest move is Sirius's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Sirius win45%▲ +2
- Draw25%▼ −2
- IF Elfsborg win30%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.