16 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Den Bosch vs FC OSS Eerste Divisie prediction & result

De Vliert
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Den Bosch 2-1 FC OSS.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Den Bosch, 29% draw, 31% FC OSS — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Den Bosch at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Den Bosch96%Draw4%FC OSS0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Sheddy Barglanassist: Kevin Monzialo
8'
⚽Sebastian Karlsson Grachassist: Kevin Monzialo
13'
Jeffry Fortes
53'
57'
🔁Maurilio de Lannoyout: Milo Horemans
57'
🔁Franslyn Nsingiout: Andy Visser
58'
🔁Richard van der Venneout: Lars Mol
🔁Boris van Schuppenout: Wang Bohao
67'
74'
🔁Julian Kuijpersout: Siriné Doucouré
75'
🔁Ilounga Pataout: Thomas Cox
🔁Ilias Boumassaoudiout: Lorenzo Hoffman
76'
🔁Sebastian Karlsson Grachout: Jack de Vries
76'
Kevin Monzialo
83'
🔁Kevin Monzialoout: Tim Rafi Wolters
86'
89'
⚽Milo Horemansassist: Siriné Doucouré

Match stats — Den Bosch vs FC OSS

46%Possession54%
12Shots20
4On target3
2Corners9
1.66xG2.35

Goals against chances

Den Bosch2 from 1.66 xGabout what the chances were worth
FC OSS1 from 2.35 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Den Bosch 4-1-4-1
  • 1P. van de MerbelG
  • 2S. BarglanD
  • 22Jeffry FortesD
  • 3S. MaasD
  • 33M. LarosD
  • 18H. EikelboomM
  • 8K. MonzialoM
  • 35B. van SchuppenM
  • 10Devon DecorteM
  • 40I. BoumassaoudiM
  • 9S. Karlsson GrachF
Substitutes
  • 31E. BijlsmaG
  • 25Silvan BrokerD
  • 55G. HesselsM
  • 27L. HoffmanF
  • 21F. MurreG
  • 17E. SemedoF
  • 16Wang BohaoM
  • 19R. WoltersF
  • 41K. de RooijD
Coach: Bart Schreuder
FC OSS 4-3-3
  • 1M. HavekotteG
  • 2I. PataD
  • 3L. MiguelD
  • 23D. VianelloD
  • 26Julian KuijpersD
  • 10R. van der VenneM
  • 8M. EsajasM
  • 11J. MathieuM
  • 27M. de LannoyF
  • 19F. NsingiF
  • 17M. HinokeF
Substitutes
  • 21Thomas CoxD
  • 12A. HenryD
  • 99S. DoucouréF
  • 6M. HoremansM
  • 4Q. JansenD
  • 24Jay KuiperD
  • 28L. MolM
  • 25J. PansaF
  • 16D. RemieG
Coach: S. Ultee

Form going into Den Bosch vs FC OSS

Den Bosch

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Jong AZ9 October 2026
  • D1-1Dordrecht3 October 2026

FC OSS

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1Helmond Sport9 October 2026
  • W4-1MVV3 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Den Bosch155462426-219
14FC OSS155282224-217

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Den Bosch vs FC OSS

  • 17 April 2026FC OSS 4–2 Den BoschEerste Divisie
  • 24 August 2025Den Bosch 5–2 FC OSSEerste Divisie
  • 24 January 2025Den Bosch 1–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie
  • 8 November 2024FC OSS 1–0 Den BoschEerste Divisie
  • 8 March 2024FC OSS 1–2 Den BoschEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Den Bosch and FC OSS

Den Bosch

GoalsAssists

  • S. Karlsson Grach60

FC OSS

GoalsAssists

  • M. Hinoke60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Den Bosch beat FC OSS 2–1. The model had made a win for Den Bosch its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Sheddy Barglan 8' for Den Bosch, Sebastian Karlsson Grach 13' for Den Bosch, Milo Horemans 89' for FC OSS. On expected goals it finished 1.66–2.35.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Den Bosch a 21.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 17.0% after a win, 22.7% after a draw, 25.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.0%, 4.5 points lower than before the match.

For FC OSS the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 7.4% going in: 4.5% after a win, 7.0% after a draw, 9.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.1%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.