16 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda Eerste Divisie prediction & result

GS Staalwerken Stadion, Helmond
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Helmond Sport 0-2 NAC Breda.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Helmond Sport, 28% draw, 45% NAC Breda — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

NAC Breda at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Helmond Sport0%Draw1%NAC Breda99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

39'
⚽Charles-Andreas Brymassist: Moussa Soumano
55'
⚽Moussa Soumano (pen)
🔁Dean·Huibertsout: Mauro Lenaerts
58'
🔁Flor Van Den Eyndenout: Lovro Golic
59'
🔁Kiton Ekoliout: Joep van der Sluijs
59'
Michel Simon Ludwig
64'
66'
Boyd Lucassen
🔁Thomas Pollout: Tijn Landheer
70'
🔁Livio Ciceroout: Labinot Bajrami
75'
75'
Rio·Hillen
82'
🔁Moussa Soumanoout: Paul Gladon
82'
🔁Maximilien Balardout: Karim Mperanyi
89'
🔁Mohamed Nassohout: Imran Nazih
89'
🔁Charles-Andreas Brymout: Brahim Ghalidi
89'
🔁Jan Van den Berghout: Mylan Brouwers

Match stats — Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda

44%Possession56%
7Shots14
3On target7
3Corners4
0.73xG1.86

Goals against chances

Helmond Sport0 from 0.73 xGless than the chances were worth
NAC Breda2 from 1.86 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Helmond Sport 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. BergsenG
  • 20S. DekkersD
  • 3F. Van Den EyndenD
  • 4B. KoglinD
  • 5T. PollD
  • 6M. LudwigM
  • 44Xander van der VeldeM
  • 30K. EkoliM
  • 10D. HuibertsM
  • 34T. EssakkatiM
  • 11L. CiceroF
Substitutes
  • 2R. van BreeD
  • 21Wessel van der HeijdenG
  • 7J. van der SluijsM
  • 26Alto Gjoka
  • 9L. BajramiF
  • 23A. El MaachG
  • 47Dayen GeertsM
  • 14Lovro GoličD
  • 43T. LandheerD
Coach: Frédéric Frans
NAC Breda 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. VerripsG
  • 2B. LucassenD
  • 4L. GreimlD
  • 22R. HillenD
  • 12J. Van den BerghD
  • 6M. BalardM
  • 10M. NassohM
  • 14K. SowahM
  • 78J. Van HeckeM
  • 28C. BrymM
  • 9M. SoumanoF
Substitutes
  • 19P. GladonF
  • 5J. CandelariaD
  • 35M. BrouwersD
  • 17M. BouchouariD
  • 23R. KortsmitG
  • 31K. LamprouG
  • 27Karim Mperanyi
  • 34I. NazihM
  • 8F. Oldrup JensenM
Coach: R. Kruijs

Form going into Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda

Helmond Sport

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to FC OSS9 October 2026
  • D2-2Heracles2 October 2026

NAC Breda

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0MVV9 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Vitesse3 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Helmond Sport153392637-1112
4NAC Breda158432922+728

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda

  • 26 January 2024Helmond Sport 1–0 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
  • 27 October 2023NAC Breda 1–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
  • 13 January 2023Helmond Sport 2–2 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
  • 5 August 2022NAC Breda 1–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
  • 18 March 2022Helmond Sport 4–0 NAC BredaEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Helmond Sport and NAC Breda

Helmond Sport

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.

NAC Breda

GoalsAssists

  • C. Brym90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

NAC Breda won 2–0 at Helmond Sport. The model had made a win for NAC Breda its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Charles-Andreas Brym 39' for NAC Breda, Moussa Soumano (penalty) 55' for NAC Breda. On expected goals it finished 0.73–1.86.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Helmond Sport a 41.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 33.8% after a win, 41.4% after a draw, 44.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.4%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.

For NAC Breda the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 53.0% going in: 58.4% after a win, 49.9% after a draw, 45.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.4%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Helmond Sport v NAC Breda has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 30% / 30% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 27% / 28% / 45%: the biggest move is NAC Breda's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Helmond Sport win27%▼ −3
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. NAC Breda win45%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.