16 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Jan Louwers Stadion, Eindhoven
Full time0 – 1

Final score: FC Eindhoven 0-1 Vitesse.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% FC Eindhoven, 28% draw, 35% Vitesse — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Eindhoven at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Eindhoven0%Draw4%Vitesse96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Junior Poortvliet
38'
39'
⚽Naoufal Bannis
44'
Pontus Dahbo
53'
valon zumberi
Clint Essers
55'
58'
🔁Youssef Ouallilout: Alexander Büttner
58'
🔁Filipe de Carvalho Ferreiraout: Mathijs Marschalk
58'
🔁Pontus Dahboout: Koen Te Veluwe
🔁Junior Poortvlietout: Luc Netten
61'
🔁Vicente Besuijenout: Hugo Deenen
61'
Luc Netten
73'
75'
🔁Xiamaro thenuout: Luuk Wouters
🔁Guus Beaumontout: Niek Munsters
80'
Owen Renfrum
82'
82'
Naoufal Bannis
84'
🔁Naoufal Bannisout: Eduard·Probst
🔁Clint Essersout: Lasse Abildgaard
87'
🔁Xander Blommeout: Lennon Smulders
87'

Match stats — FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse

56%Possession44%
7Shots7
3On target2
2Corners5
0.89xG0.33

Goals against chances

FC Eindhoven0 from 0.89 xGless than the chances were worth
Vitesse1 from 0.33 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Eindhoven 4-4-2
  • 1J. BorgmansG
  • 22C. EssersD
  • 44O. RenfrumD
  • 4Predrag JevtićD
  • 20Raf van de RietD
  • 28R. BuifrahiM
  • 6G. BeaumontM
  • 8X. BlommeM
  • 77V. BesuijenM
  • 18Antonio BaždarićF
  • 19Kevin FerreiraF
Substitutes
  • 27E. EksiF
  • 35J. ElbersD
  • 30N. FancitoG
  • 31N. JanssenG
  • 14N. MunstersM
  • 10Lasse AbildgaardF
  • 17L. NettenD
  • 25Lennon SmuldersM
  • 7H. DeenenF
Coach: Jan Poortvliet
Vitesse 4-2-3-1
  • 1C. van den BergG
  • 2S. BonnahD
  • 55M. SteffenD
  • 17V. ZumberiD
  • 22Xiamaro ThenuD
  • 6M. SchikoraM
  • 34Y. OuallilM
  • 20F. de CarvalhoM
  • 16P. DahboM
  • 21A. SelloufM
  • 9N. BannisF
Substitutes
  • 14O. AchouitarD
  • 25T. BodakG
  • 42Teun BoschM
  • 31M. BrullG
  • 28A. BüttnerD
  • 24N. MarkeloD
  • 33M. MarschalkM
  • 27E. ProbstF
  • 11Yuval RanonF
Coach: R. Rehm

Form going into FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse

FC Eindhoven

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Almere City FC9 October 2026
  • D2-2De Graafschap3 October 2026

Vitesse

Eerste Divisie

  • L0-2away to FC Volendam9 October 2026
  • D2-2NAC Breda3 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17FC Eindhoven154292032-1214
11Vitesse135351718-118

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse

  • 2 February 2026Vitesse 1–1 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
  • 17 October 2025FC Eindhoven 0–4 VitesseEerste Divisie
  • 7 March 2025FC Eindhoven 3–3 VitesseEerste Divisie
  • 30 August 2024Vitesse 1–1 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: FC Eindhoven and Vitesse

FC Eindhoven

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.

Vitesse

GoalsAssists

  • N. Bannis103

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Vitesse won 1–0 at FC Eindhoven. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Eindhoven at 37% and given a win for Vitesse 35%. The goal: Naoufal Bannis 39' for Vitesse. On expected goals it finished 0.89–0.33.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Eindhoven a 18.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 13.2% after a win, 18.1% after a draw, 22.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.7%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.

For Vitesse the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 21.5% going in: 26.0% after a win, 20.5% after a draw, 16.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.0%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Eindhoven v Vitesse has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 36% / 30% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 37% / 28% / 35%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. FC Eindhoven win37%▲ +1
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Vitesse win35%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.