Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Den Bosch 1-1 Jong Utrecht.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Den Bosch, 24% draw, 24% Jong Utrecht — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Den Bosch at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. van de MerbelG
- 22Jeffry FortesD
- 33M. LarosD
- 3S. MaasD
- 18H. EikelboomM
- 2S. BarglanM
- 35B. van SchuppenM
- 10Devon DecorteM
- 40I. BoumassaoudiM
- 8K. MonzialoF
- 9S. Karlsson GrachF
- 31E. BijlsmaG
- 25Silvan BrokerD
- 27L. HoffmanF
- 21F. MurreG
- 17E. SemedoF
- 16Wang BohaoM
- 19R. WoltersF
- 11J. De VriesM
- 39S. van DaalenM
- 1M. EppinkG
- 2Yousri SbaiD
- 3F. PohlD
- 14W. KooyD
- 5Viggo PlantingaD
- 6J. van OmmerenM
- 8D. LaaouinaM
- 7E. C. OwenM
- 10Massien GhaddariM
- 11R. OmorowaM
- 9N. DundasF
- 19Tijn den BoggendeF
- 32M. TsankovG
- 13J. SchuldesD
- 21L. RietveldM
- 15Thomas ReindersD
- 16Kenji GoesM
- 31Justin EversenG
- 17Noël BeulensD
- 22A. AslaniM
Form going into Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht
Den Bosch
Eerste Divisie
- W5-0away to Emmen1 November 2026
- D2-2MVV23 October 2026
- W2-1FC OSS16 October 2026
Jong Utrecht
Eerste Divisie
- W3-2Dordrecht2 November 2026
- L2-6away to FC Volendam23 October 2026
- L1-2Roda19 October 2026
- L1-2away to De Graafschap9 October 2026
What these results say
- Jong Utrecht scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Jong Utrecht conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Jong Utrecht had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Den Bosch | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 19 |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht
- 20 April 2026Den Bosch 1–1 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 24 November 2025Jong Utrecht 3–2 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 27 January 2025Den Bosch 2–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 16 September 2024Jong Utrecht 0–3 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 15 April 2024Jong Utrecht 0–2 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 4 November 2023Den Bosch 1–1 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht
Den Bosch
GoalsAssists
- S. Karlsson Grach60
Jong Utrecht
GoalsAssists
- E. C. Owen60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Den Bosch at 52% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Lorenzo Hoffman 84' for Den Bosch, Jamie Schuldes 90+1' for Jong Utrecht. On expected goals it finished 2.39–1.05.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Den Bosch a 37.1% chance to finish in the top eight: 41.1% after a win, 32.4% after a draw, 27.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 32.4%, 4.7 points lower than before the match.
For Jong Utrecht the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 49.0% going in: 39.4% after a win, 47.2% after a draw, 52.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 47.2%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Den Bosch v Jong Utrecht has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 47% / 26% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 52% / 24% / 24%: the biggest move is Den Bosch's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Den Bosch win52%▲ +5
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Jong Utrecht win24%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.