Derby vs West Brom Championship prediction & result
Final score: Derby 0-1 West Brom.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Derby, 28% draw, 32% West Brom — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Derby at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Derby vs West Brom
Line-ups
- 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
- 28D. SandersonD
- 6S. LangåsD
- 44E. CashinD
- 18C. TaylorD
- 20A. MowattM
- 4D. OzohM
- 26R. HedgesM
- 8B. ClarkM
- 16M. FuseiniM
- 11S. SzmodicsF
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
- 29O. FrauloM
- 22M. JohnstonD
- 19H. MeisterF
- 24R. NyambeD
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 31J. VickersG
- 23J. WardM
- 42Raymond OfforD
- 1M. O’LearyG
- 18B. PereiraD
- 3N. PhillipsD
- 6G. CampbellD
- 4C. StylesD
- 29Harry WhitwellM
- 8J. MolumbyM
- 17O. DiakitéM
- 21I. PriceM
- 19A. HeggebøF
- 11J. MorganF
- 42B. CisseG
- 15Tobias Christopher CollyerM
- 25N. GalvesD
- 2C. MephamD
- 7F. MyhreM
- 20R. NzingoulaM
- 9B. StewartF
- 22C. TownsendD
- 26K. TundeF
Form going into Derby vs West Brom
Derby
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to West Ham5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Portsmouth1 September 2026
- L0-3Swansea29 August 2026
- D2-2Cardiff22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Charlton15 August 2026
West Brom
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Watford5 September 2026
- D1-1Charlton2 September 2026
- L1-3away to Middlesbrough29 August 2026
- W3-1Burnley23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Norwich15 August 2026
What these results say
- Derby failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Derby conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Derby had three goals or more.
- West Brom scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- West Brom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for West Brom.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 10 |
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Derby vs West Brom
- 23 January 2026Derby 1–1 West BromChampionship
- 13 September 2025West Brom 0–1 DerbyChampionship
- 12 August 2025West Brom 1–1 DerbyLeague Cup
- 21 April 2025West Brom 1–3 DerbyChampionship
- 26 December 2024Derby 2–1 West BromChampionship
Leading scorers: Derby and West Brom
Derby
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
West Brom
GoalsAssists
- I. Price63
- J. Morgan54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
West Brom won 1–0 at Derby. The model had leaned towards a win for Derby at 40% and given a win for West Brom 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Aune Heggebo 16' for West Brom. Sent off: Brayann Pereira (West Brom) 34'.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.