24 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Dijon vs Rodez Ligue 2 prediction & result

Dijon
Referee: Pierre Retail, France
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Dijon 1-2 Rodez.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Dijon, 23% draw, 28% Rodez — fair odds of 2.04, 4.35 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dijon at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dijon6%Draw89%Rodez5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽Antonin Cartillier
⚽Yanis Barkaassist: Boubacar Diallo
23'
39'
Raphael Lipinski
Boubacar Diallo
55'
🔁Boubacar Dialloout: Moussa Faty
56'
🔁Jordan Mariéout: Paul Bellon
57'
63'
🔁Octave Jolyout: Mathis Saka
64'
🔁Kelian Nsonaout: Kenny Nagera
🔁Yanis Barkaout: Alexis Ntamack
68'
71'
🔁Damjan Pavlovićout: Jordan Mendes
80'
🔁Nachon Nsingiout: Marco Essimi
80'
🔁Steven Luyambula Biwaout: Corentin Issanchou Roubiou
🔁Samy Chouchaneout: Hugo Vargas Ríos
82'
🔁Ange Lagoout: Júlio Tavares
82'
88'
Ryan Ponti
90+2'
⚽Marco Essimiassist: Kenny Nagera

Match stats — Dijon vs Rodez

72%Possession28%
18Shots16
6On target6
10Corners3
1.59xG1.52

Goals against chances

Dijon1 from 1.59 xGless than the chances were worth
Rodez2 from 1.52 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dijon 4-1-3-2
  • 16P. DelecroixG
  • 23L. LacroixD
  • 6W. DioufD
  • 5Q. BernardD
  • 75Boubacar DialloD
  • 14J. MariéM
  • 21Samy ChouchaneM
  • 17A. LembezatM
  • 18B. NdeziM
  • 90A. LagoF
  • 10Y. BarkaF
Substitutes
  • 20H. Vargas-RíosM
  • 93I. BouleghchaD
  • 8P. BellonM
  • 42Y. AkaD
  • 9T. DongF
  • 31M. FatyD
  • 46Ilan Marie-RoseG
  • 29A. NtamackF
  • 11Júlio TavaresF
Coach: B. Ridira
Rodez 5-3-2
  • 1Q. BraatG
  • 28S. Luyambula BiwaD
  • 24L. QuenabioD
  • 4M. MagninD
  • 3R. LipinskiD
  • 20R. PontiD
  • 29Antonin CartillierM
  • 8D. PavlovićM
  • 22O. JolyM
  • 9N. NsingiF
  • 21K. NsonaF
Substitutes
  • 13C. RoubiouD
  • 15E. Jean-LambertD
  • 16L. MargueronG
  • 6J. MendesM
  • 7K. NageraF
  • 10M. SakaM
  • 5M. SyllaD
  • 27M. Essimi AtebaF
  • 11M. TouhoF
Coach: D. Santini

Form going into Dijon vs Rodez

Dijon

Ligue 2

  • L2-4away to Reims16 October 2026
  • W4-2Metz12 October 2026

Rodez

Ligue 2

  • L0-3Montpellier19 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Saint Etienne10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Dijon125342119+218
13Rodez124171723-613

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dijon vs Rodez

  • 8 April 2023Dijon 1–0 RodezLigue 2
  • 30 December 2022Rodez 2–1 DijonLigue 2
  • 15 January 2022Rodez 0–2 DijonLigue 2
  • 7 August 2021Dijon 1–1 RodezLigue 2

Leading scorers: Dijon and Rodez

Dijon

GoalsAssists

  • Júlio Tavares51
  • Y. Barka40

Rodez

GoalsAssists

  • I. Baldé50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rodez won 2–1 at Dijon. The model had leaned towards a win for Dijon at 49% and given a win for Rodez 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Antonin Cartillier 2' for Rodez, Yanis Barka 23' for Dijon, Marco Essimi 90+2' for Rodez. On expected goals it finished 1.59–1.52.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dijon a 3.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 2.1% after a win, 4.1% after a draw, 5.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.6%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

For Rodez the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 22.6% going in: 16.0% after a win, 24.0% after a draw, 25.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.0%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Dijon v Rodez has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 43% / 24% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 49% / 23% / 28%: the biggest move is Dijon's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Dijon win49%▲ +6
  2. Draw23%▼ −1
  3. Rodez win28%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.