ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: ADO Den Haag 2-3 Heerenveen.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% ADO Den Haag, 27% draw, 41% Heerenveen — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Heerenveen at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. NikiémaG
- 5J. Jensen-AbbewD
- 3P. MulderD
- 4M. WaemD
- 18S. SyllaD
- 17J. HawkinsM
- 33M. ŠínM
- 25J. KiloM
- 11E. RottierM
- 9J. BalF
- 46Y. EduardoF
- 15M. HokkeD
- 2O. RaterinkD
- 23N. ThiedeG
- 27N. ThomasF
- 22L. WilhelmD
- 16Finn de BruinM
- 10Illaijh de RuijterD
- 7D. van MieghemF
- 8J. ŽambůrekM
- 1B. KlaverboerG
- 45O. BraudeD
- 4S. KerstenD
- 3M. WillemsenD
- 19V. ZagaritisD
- 16M. LindayM
- 8N. CourtensM
- 20J. TrenskowM
- 10R. MeerveldM
- 7M. RiveraM
- 9D. VenteF
- 2M. HilgersD
- 23D. BladiD
- 49Anass BouzianeM
- 21M. FarjiF
- 28H. PetrovD
- 29L. MachineF
- 15M. EgbringD
- 44A. NoppertG
- 11L. OyenF
Form going into ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen
ADO Den Haag
Eredivisie
- W2-1PSV Eindhoven17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Telstar11 October 2026
Heerenveen
Eredivisie
- W4-0Excelsior16 October 2026
- L0-2away to PSV Eindhoven9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 9 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen
ADO Den Haag and Heerenveen have met 7 times in the records we hold, Heerenveen has won 3 of them to ADO Den Haag's 0, with 4 drawn.
The record
Heerenveen won the last one 3–2 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 14 |
| Heerenveen | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
EredivisieADO Den Haag 2–3 Heerenveen - 6 Mar 2021
EredivisieHeerenveen 3–0 ADO Den Haag - 28 Nov 2020
EredivisieADO Den Haag 1–1 Heerenveen - 22 Feb 2020
EredivisieHeerenveen 2–2 ADO Den Haag - 3 Nov 2019
EredivisieADO Den Haag 1–1 Heerenveen - 9 Mar 2019
EredivisieADO Den Haag 2–3 Heerenveen - 29 Sep 2018
EredivisieHeerenveen 1–1 ADO Den Haag
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Heerenveen's attack rates 28% above ADO Den Haag's, and Heerenveen concede 20% fewer than ADO Den Haag. That gives Heerenveen the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 0.72 | 1.22 |
| Heerenveen | 0.92 | 0.98 |
Leading scorers: ADO Den Haag and Heerenveen
ADO Den Haag
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Heerenveen
GoalsAssists
- J. Trenskow63
- R. Meerveld51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Heerenveen won 3–2 at ADO Den Haag. The model had made a win for Heerenveen its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jacob Trenskow 24' for Heerenveen, Ringo Meerveld 51' for Heerenveen, Nigel Thomas 57' for ADO Den Haag, Jacob Trenskow 66' for Heerenveen, Nigel Thomas 72' for ADO Den Haag. On expected goals it finished 2.90–2.50.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave ADO Den Haag a 30.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 22.1% after a win, 29.1% after a draw, 34.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.7%, 4.7 points higher than before the match.
For Heerenveen the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 8.1% going in: 9.4% after a win, 7.0% after a draw, 6.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.4%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on ADO Den Haag v Heerenveen has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 29% / 27% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 32% / 27% / 41%: the biggest move is ADO Den Haag's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- ADO Den Haag win32%▲ +3
- Draw27%=
- Heerenveen win41%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.