1 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF Allsvenskan prediction & result

3Arena, Stockholm
Referee: Oscar Johnson
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Djurgardens IF 2-1 Degerfors IF.

Before kick-off the model made it 71% Djurgardens IF, 19% draw, 10% Degerfors IF — fair odds of 1.41, 5.26 and 10.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Djurgardens IF at 71%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Djurgardens IF98%Draw2%Degerfors IF0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Piotr Johanssonassist: Daniel Stensson
4'
12'
Ludvig Fritzson
Daniel Stensson
28'
⚽Charlie Rosenquistassist: Bo Åsulv Hegland
39'
45'
🔁Sebastian Ohlssonout: Nasiru Moro
71'
🔁Dijan Vukojevicout: Arman Taranis
71'
🔁Noel Milleskogout: Robin Dzabic
🔁Charlie Rosenquistout: Patric Aslund
73'
🔁Jeppe Okkelsout: Oskar Fallenius
73'
75'
⚽Ludvig Fritzsonassist: Bilal Hussein
80'
Ahmad Faqa
🔁Kristian Stromland Lienout: Peter Langhoff
81'
🔁Matias Siltanenout: Christos Almyras
81'
🔁Bo Åsulv Heglandout: Mikael Marques
90+1'
90+3'
Arman Taranis

Match stats — Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF

59%Possession41%
16Shots4
6On target1
5Corners1
3.11xG0.32

Goals against chances

Djurgardens IF2 from 3.11 xGless than the chances were worth
Degerfors IF1 from 0.32 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Djurgardens IF 4-2-3-1
  • 35J. RinneG
  • 18A. StåhlD
  • 5M. TenhoD
  • 4J. Une-LarssonD
  • 2P. JohanssonD
  • 13D. StenssonM
  • 20M. SiltanenM
  • 14C. RosenquistM
  • 16Bo Åsulv HeglandM
  • 19J. OkkelsM
  • 9K. LienF
Substitutes
  • 10Abdul AbdulmalikM
  • 7Christos AlmyrasM
  • 8P. ÅslundM
  • 11O. FalleniusF
  • 6P. LanghoffM
  • 24M. LarssonM
  • 21M. MarquesD
  • 27S. RingbergF
  • 30Lukas Henrik JonssonG
Coach: Jani Honkavaara
Degerfors IF 5-3-2
  • 38M. IgonenG
  • 6D. SundgrenD
  • 2Ahmad FaqaD
  • 3Nikolai SkusethD
  • 7S. OhlssonD
  • 18S. DiataraD
  • 10N. MilleskogM
  • 8B. HusseinM
  • 22N. Girmai NetabayM
  • 14L. FritzsonF
  • 11D. VukojevićF
Substitutes
  • 15N. MoroD
  • 17Arman TaranisF
  • 13M. HamiltonM
  • 4K. KarlssonM
  • 1W. JakobssonG
  • 23R. DzabicM
  • 9K. BouteraF
  • 20E. BarsoumM
  • 28J. HernandezD
Coach: H. Goitom

Form going into Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF

Djurgardens IF

Allsvenskan

  • D1-1away to IFK Goteborg28 October 2026
  • D2-2Orgryte IS24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to IF Brommapojkarna16 October 2026

Degerfors IF

Allsvenskan

  • L0-3Vasteras SK FK28 October 2026
  • L0-4away to BK Hacken24 October 2026
  • L1-2Kalmar FF19 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Djurgardens IF2816485627+2952
14Degerfors IF2855182348-2520

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF

  • 25 July 2026Degerfors IF 0–1 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
  • 21 March 2026Djurgardens IF 2–1 Degerfors IFFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 October 2025Degerfors IF 1–1 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
  • 6 July 2025Djurgardens IF 5–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
  • 10 March 2024Djurgardens IF 3–0 Degerfors IFSvenska Cupen
  • 27 August 2023Djurgardens IF 4–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF

Djurgardens IF

GoalsAssists

  • K. Lien166
  • Bo Åsulv Hegland1116
  • C. Rosenquist81

Degerfors IF

No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Djurgardens IF beat Degerfors IF 2–1. The model had made a win for Djurgardens IF its most likely outcome, at 71%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Piotr Johansson 4' for Djurgardens IF, Charlie Rosenquist 39' for Djurgardens IF, Ludvig Fritzson 75' for Degerfors IF. On expected goals it finished 3.11–0.32.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Djurgardens IF a 92.0% chance to finish in the top three: 94.1% after a win, 85.8% after a draw, 77.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 94.1%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

For Degerfors IF the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 53.5% going in: 25.3% after a win, 46.0% after a draw, 57.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 57.1%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Djurgardens IF v Degerfors IF has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 67% / 21% / 12% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 71% / 19% / 10%: the biggest move is Djurgardens IF's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Djurgardens IF win71%▲ +4
  2. Draw19%▼ −2
  3. Degerfors IF win10%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.