1 November 2026, 23:45 UTC

Lanus vs Gimnasia Mendoza Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Ciudad de Lanus, Buenos Aires
Referee: Pablo Echavarria
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Lanus 1-1 Gimnasia Mendoza.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Lanus, 30% draw, 21% Gimnasia Mendoza — fair odds of 2.04, 3.33 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lanus at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁José Canaleout: Gonzalo German Perez Corbalan
15'
44'
Nahuel Barboza
⚽Gonzalo Thomás Lobosassist: Felipe Peña Biafore
45+4'
45'
🔁Agustín Módicaout: Luciano César Cingolani
🔁Matías Sepúlvedaout: Lucas Agustín Besozzi
45'
🔁Agustín Cardozoout: Raul Loaiza
45'
45'
🔁Nahuel Barbozaout: Brian Andrada
🔁Gonzalo Thomás Lobosout: Ramiro Carrera
66'
69'
🔁Esteban Fernándezout: Matías Vargas
69'
🔁Fermin Antoniniout: Ulises Sánchez
72'
⚽Raul Loaiza (OG)
🔁Eduardo Salvioout: Marcelino Moreno
79'
89'
🔁Facundo Lencioniout: Martín Úbeda

Match stats — Lanus vs Gimnasia Mendoza

45%Possession55%
13Shots15
4On target6
4Corners6
1.2xG0.73

Goals against chances

Lanus1 from 1.20 xGabout what the chances were worth
Gimnasia Mendoza1 from 0.73 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lanus 4-4-2
  • 26N. LosadaG
  • 33T. GuidaraD
  • 35R. De JesúsD
  • 13J. CanaleD
  • 6S. MarcichD
  • 16M. SepúlvedaM
  • 5F. PeñaM
  • 30A. CardozoM
  • 11E. SalvioM
  • 42G. LobosF
  • 20A. WlkF
Substitutes
  • 77L. BesozziF
  • 38B. AcostaF
  • 23R. CarreraM
  • 15R. LoaizaM
  • 40Tomás LópezD
  • 10M. MorenoM
  • 3N. MorgantiniD
  • 1F. PetroliG
  • 4G. PérezD
Coach: M. Pellegrino
Gimnasia Mendoza 4-2-3-1
  • 23C. RigamontiG
  • 32L. ParedesD
  • 2D. MondinoD
  • 42L. CarreraD
  • 3M. RecaldeD
  • 21F. AntoniniM
  • 5N. BarbozaM
  • 17I. SabatiniM
  • 30E. FernándezM
  • 26F. LencioniM
  • 9A. MódicaF
Substitutes
  • 19J. CeballosM
  • 7L. CingolaniF
  • 36I. CortezD
  • 41G. PatrittiD
  • 31L. PetruchiG
  • 11S. RodríguezF
  • 10N. RomanoF
  • 35V. SimoniF
  • 15U. SánchezM
Coach: D. Franco

Form going into Lanus vs Gimnasia Mendoza

Lanus

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • D1-1away to Banfield24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Platense17 October 2026
  • W2-0Velez Sarsfield12 October 2026

Gimnasia Mendoza

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • L1-2Platense23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield17 October 2026
  • W1-0Newell's Old Boys12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Lanus167541912+726
8Gimnasia Mendoza166461817+122

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lanus vs Gimnasia Mendoza

  • 21 April 2026Gimnasia Mendoza 1–0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Lanus and Gimnasia Mendoza

Lanus

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Gimnasia Mendoza

GoalsAssists

  • A. Módica140

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lanus and Gimnasia Mendoza drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Lanus at 49% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Gonzalo Thomás Lobos 45+4' for Lanus, Raul Loaiza (own goal) 72' for Gimnasia Mendoza. On expected goals it finished 1.20–0.73.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gimnasia Mendoza these chances to finish in the top eight: 99.9% after a win, 88.4% after a draw, 71.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 88.4%.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.