Newell's Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Newell's Old Boys 1-1 Union Santa Fe.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Newell's Old Boys, 30% draw, 29% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Newell's Old Boys at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Newell's Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30J. ReinattiG
- 6M. OrtegaD
- 23N. GoiteaD
- 16L. CarrizoD
- 28J. RussoD
- 27L. GómezM
- 5L. RegiardoM
- 7W. MazzanttiM
- 20Facundo GauchM
- 32S. SolariM
- 9M. CóccaroF
- 15A. SoñoraM
- 36Francisco ScarpeccioF
- 22O. SalomónD
- 39T. RiosF
- 29M. EspondaM
- 21G. AriasG
- 2I. GlavinovichD
- 19J. MattarM
- 3M. LucianoD
- 21M. MansillaG
- 27T. RubioD
- 33I. IslaD
- 26J. LudueñaD
- 18L. AyalaD
- 20J. PalaciosM
- 17J. MosqueiraM
- 11M. Luna DialeM
- 22B. CuelloM
- 25C. TarragonaF
- 19M. EstigarribiaF
- 31M. AguirreF
- 36M. AimarD
- 38V. J. CerrudoF
- 44T. FagioliD
- 7F. FragapaneM
- 8E. GiacconeM
- 40L. MeuliG
- 34Mateo PeresuttiM
- 15J. PintadoD
Form going into Newell's Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe
Newell's Old Boys
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D0-0away to San Lorenzo24 October 2026
- W2-1Central Cordoba de Santiago19 October 2026
- L0-1away to Gimnasia Mendoza12 October 2026
Union Santa Fe
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W3-1Estudiantes La Plata26 October 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo Riestra20 October 2026
- L0-2Defensa Y Justicia10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 23 |
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Newell's Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe
Newell's Old Boys and Union Santa Fe have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Newell's Old Boys on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newell's Old Boys | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Union Santa Fe | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaNewell's Old Boys 1–1 Union Santa Fe - 17 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaUnion Santa Fe 2–3 Newell's Old Boys - 1 Nov 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaNewell's Old Boys 0–1 Union Santa Fe - 19 Apr 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaUnion Santa Fe 1–1 Newell's Old Boys - 2 Nov 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaUnion Santa Fe 2–0 Newell's Old Boys - 9 Feb 2024
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalUnion Santa Fe 1–3 Newell's Old Boys - 16 Sep 2023
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalNewell's Old Boys 1–1 Union Santa Fe
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Union Santa Fe's attack rates 36% above Newell's Old Boys', and Newell's Old Boys concede 21% fewer than Union Santa Fe. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Newell's Old Boys | 0.72 | 1.18 |
| Union Santa Fe | 0.98 | 1.49 |
Leading scorers: Newell's Old Boys and Union Santa Fe
Newell's Old Boys
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Union Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- C. Tarragona172
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Newell's Old Boys and Union Santa Fe drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Newell's Old Boys at 41% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Juan Pablo Ludueña 59' for Union Santa Fe, Ignacio Isla (own goal) 76' for Newell's Old Boys. On expected goals it finished 0.38–1.21.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Newell's Old Boys these chances to finish in the top eight: 100.0% after a win, 100.0% after a draw, 74.1% after a defeat. The draw was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 100.0%.
For Union Santa Fe the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 24.7% going in: 55.8% after a win, 14.6% after a draw, 8.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 14.6%, 10.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Newell's Old Boys v Union Santa Fe has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 30% / 29%: the biggest move is Newell's Old Boys's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Newell's Old Boys win41%▼ −2
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Union Santa Fe win29%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.