1 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS Allsvenskan prediction & result

Borås Arena, Boras
Referee: Victor Wolf
Full time2 – 1

Final score: IF Elfsborg 2-1 Orgryte IS.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% IF Elfsborg, 22% draw, 19% Orgryte IS — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

IF Elfsborg at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

IF Elfsborg7%Draw90%Orgryte IS3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
Owen Parker-Price
🔁Rasmus Wikströmout: Sebastian Holmen
51'
52'
⚽Tobias Sanaassist: william hofvander
⚽Julius Magnussonassist: Simon Olsson
65'
66'
🔁Anton Andreassonout: Adam Andersson
66'
🔁Liam Filip Anderssonout: Viktor Ekblom
🔁Ari Sigurpalssonout: Momoh Ibrahim Kamara
66'
🔁Simon Olssonout: Marcus Rohdén
66'
Julius Magnusson
75'
77'
🔁william hofvanderout: Rasmus Alm
77'
🔁William Kenndalout: Johan Hammar
🔁Niklas Hultout: Jonathan Esenga
79'
🔁Simon Hedlundout: Taylor Silverholt
79'
Jonathan Esenga
83'
86'
Adam Andersson
90+1'
🔁Tobias Sanaout: Jerome Tibbling Ugwo
⚽Leo Hakan Ostmanassist: Alexander Jensen
90+3'
90+7'
S.Lagerlund

Match stats — IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS

70%Possession30%
15Shots9
5On target3
12Corners1
1.89xG0.71

Goals against chances

IF Elfsborg2 from 1.89 xGabout what the chances were worth
Orgryte IS1 from 0.71 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

IF Elfsborg 4-2-3-1
  • 12T. SanderG
  • 16A. JensenD
  • 6R. WikströmD
  • 4T. IsherwoodD
  • 23N. HultD
  • 18J. MagnússonM
  • 10S. OlssonM
  • 25A. SigurpálssonM
  • 19J. BeckM
  • 15S. HedlundM
  • 21L. ÖstmanF
Substitutes
  • 3J. EsengaD
  • 8S. HolménD
  • 22D. KrasniqiF
  • 5O. NordvallM
  • 31I. PetterssonG
  • 7M. RohdénM
  • 11T. SilverholtF
  • 9A. ZeneliM
  • 29M. KamaraM
Coach: Björn Hamberg
Orgryte IS 5-3-2
  • 44H. GustafssonG
  • 14D. PaulsonD
  • 33S. LagerlundD
  • 6M. DyrestamD
  • 5C. StyffeD
  • 19A. AndreassonD
  • 23O. Parker-PriceM
  • 21W. KenndalM
  • 17W. HofvanderM
  • 9L. AnderssonF
  • 22T. SanaF
Substitutes
  • 34A. RahmG
  • 15Jerome Tibbling UgwoF
  • 25J. HammarD
  • 32Viktor EkblomF
  • 29Marlon EbietomereD
  • 3J. AzulayD
  • 18A. AnderssonD
  • 10R. AlmM
  • 7C. VindehallM
Coach: A. Holmberg

Form going into IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS

IF Elfsborg

Allsvenskan

  • D2-2away to AIK Stockholm27 October 2026
  • D0-0Malmo FF23 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Sirius18 October 2026

Orgryte IS

Allsvenskan

  • L1-2Mjallby AIF29 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Djurgardens IF24 October 2026
  • W4-2Gais18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5IF Elfsborg28121064231+1146
15Orgryte IS2848163360-2720

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS

  • 29 May 2026Orgryte IS 2–2 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 16 February 2025IF Elfsborg 3–1 Orgryte ISSvenska Cupen
  • 24 February 2024Orgryte IS 3–2 IF ElfsborgSvenska Cupen

Leading scorers: IF Elfsborg and Orgryte IS

IF Elfsborg

GoalsAssists

  • L. Östman112

Orgryte IS

GoalsAssists

  • N. Christoffersson81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

IF Elfsborg beat Orgryte IS 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for IF Elfsborg at 59%. The goals: Tobias Sana 52' for Orgryte IS, Julius Magnusson 65' for IF Elfsborg, Leo Hakan Ostman 90+3' for IF Elfsborg. On expected goals it finished 1.89–0.71.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Orgryte IS a 38.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 16.9% after a win, 33.0% after a draw, 44.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.8%, 6.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on IF Elfsborg v Orgryte IS has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 63% / 21% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 59% / 22% / 19%: the biggest move is IF Elfsborg's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. IF Elfsborg win59%▼ −4
  2. Draw22%▲ +1
  3. Orgryte IS win19%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.