6 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Jan Louwers Stadion, Eindhoven
Full time0 – 3

Final score: FC Eindhoven 0-3 Jong Ajax.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% FC Eindhoven, 26% draw, 28% Jong Ajax — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Eindhoven at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Eindhoven0%Draw1%Jong Ajax99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Junior Poortvlietout: Rens Boon
24'
41'
⚽emre unuvar
53'
⚽Levi Acheampong
66'
🔁Jano Monserrateout: Mark Verkuijl
🔁Raf van de Rietout: Gideon Constancia
71'
🔁Siegert Baartmansout: antonio bazdaric
71'
71'
🔁emre unuvarout: Leo Salazar
74'
Pharell Nash
76'
⚽Diego Pugno (pen)
78'
Pharell Nash
🔁Xander Blommeout: Niek Munsters
78'
🔁Hugo Deenenout: Lasse Abildgaard
78'
85'
🔁Ryan van de Pavertout: Mylo van der Lans
85'
🔁Levi Acheampongout: Avery Appiah

Match stats — FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax

59%Possession41%
14Shots15
2On target7
4Corners6
0.61xG3

Goals against chances

FC Eindhoven0 from 0.61 xGless than the chances were worth
Jong Ajax3 from 3.00 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Eindhoven 4-4-2
  • 1J. BorgmansG
  • 17L. NettenD
  • 44O. RenfrumD
  • 4Predrag JevtićD
  • 20Raf van de RietD
  • 28R. BuifrahiM
  • 6G. BeaumontM
  • 8X. BlommeM
  • 77V. BesuijenM
  • 7H. DeenenF
  • 19Kevin FerreiraF
Substitutes
  • 13A. BrysonF
  • 5R. BoonD
  • 23Gideon ConstanciaF
  • 30N. FancitoG
  • 31N. JanssenG
  • 14N. MunstersM
  • 10Lasse AbildgaardF
  • 21A. OzcanF
  • 16B. RoversD
Coach: Jan Poortvliet
Jong Ajax 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. HeerkensG
  • 2R. van de PavertD
  • 3G. SpinaD
  • 4M. MuzunguD
  • 5J. AmourD
  • 6T. PetersM
  • 8L. AcheampongM
  • 7E. ÜnüvarM
  • 10Alejandro MonserrateM
  • 11P. NashM
  • 9D. PugnoF
Substitutes
  • 18L. BeekmanD
  • 19A. CamaraM
  • 30A. HaniG
  • 25Jan FaberskiF
  • 20Jinairo JohnsonD
  • 23Leo SalazarM
  • 12C. SetfordG
  • 22J. SimeonF
  • 21M. VerkuijlM
Coach: Carlos García

Form going into FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax

FC Eindhoven

Eerste Divisie

  • L2-3away to Helmond Sport30 October 2026
  • L1-2Jong PSV U2123 October 2026
  • L0-1Vitesse16 October 2026

Jong Ajax

Eerste Divisie

  • D1-1Vitesse2 November 2026
  • D3-3away to FC OSS23 October 2026
  • W2-1De Graafschap19 October 2026
  • L0-3VVV Venlo9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Jong Ajax conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Jong Ajax failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Jong Ajax scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17FC Eindhoven154292032-1214
15Jong Ajax144462230-816

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax

  • 6 March 2026FC Eindhoven 2–1 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
  • 21 November 2025Jong Ajax 1–3 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
  • 3 March 2025Jong Ajax 0–2 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
  • 24 August 2024FC Eindhoven 0–3 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
  • 23 December 2023FC Eindhoven 2–2 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
  • 25 September 2023Jong Ajax 1–1 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax

FC Eindhoven

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.

Jong Ajax

GoalsAssists

  • E. Ünüvar80
  • D. Pugno62

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Jong Ajax won 3–0 at FC Eindhoven. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Eindhoven at 46% and given a win for Jong Ajax 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: emre unuvar 41' for Jong Ajax, Levi Acheampong 53' for Jong Ajax, Diego Pugno (penalty) 76' for Jong Ajax. Sent off: Pharell Nash (Jong Ajax) 78'. On expected goals it finished 0.61–3.00.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Eindhoven a 41.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 35.2% after a win, 44.1% after a draw, 51.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.0%, 9.2 points higher than before the match.

For Jong Ajax the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 30.5% going in: 21.6% after a win, 29.5% after a draw, 35.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.6%, 8.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Eindhoven v Jong Ajax has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 49% / 25% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 46% / 26% / 28%: the biggest move is FC Eindhoven's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. FC Eindhoven win46%▼ −3
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. Jong Ajax win28%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.