24 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo Eerste Divisie prediction & result

M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Dordrecht 2-4 VVV Venlo.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Dordrecht, 27% draw, 45% VVV Venlo — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

VVV Venlo at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dordrecht0%Draw1%VVV Venlo99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽Thomas Janssenassist: Mohammed Odriss
17'
⚽Eanna Clancy
33'
⚽Ismail Oulad M'Handassist: Mohammed Odriss
36'
Raf Vullers
🔁Senne Vugtsout: Yannis M'Bemba
45'
🔁nicolas rossiout: Robin van Asten
45'
50'
⚽Lars de Blok
⚽Lorenzo Riccioassist: Robin van Asten
56'
Beni Christophe Mpanzu
58'
🔁Beni Christophe Mpanzuout: Lucas Gardenier
61'
71'
🔁Thomas Janssenout: Amir rais
71'
🔁Lars de Blokout: Michael Davis
🔁J. de Bieout: Siginho Gerardo
75'
Lorenzo Riccio
76'
77'
Ismail Oulad M'Hand
80'
🔁Raf Vullersout: Luis Gorlich
80'
🔁L. Schmidtout: Mattheos Tsigkas
🔁Jurre van Akenout: Rocharnio Lenz
84'
87'
🔁Eanna Clancyout: Tijn Joosten
90+2'
Luis Gorlich
⚽Rocharnio Lenz
90+3'

Match stats — Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo

59%Possession41%
8Shots13
4On target6
8Corners2
0.82xG1.04

Goals against chances

Dordrecht2 from 0.82 xGmore than the chances were worth
VVV Venlo4 from 1.04 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dordrecht 4-2-3-1
  • 28T. CoremansG
  • 22J. van AkenD
  • 4J. PinasD
  • 3S. HenderikxD
  • 5C. MpanzuD
  • 8Senne VugtsM
  • 6L. RiccioM
  • 10A. OuarghiM
  • 21M. VetkalM
  • 11N. RossiM
  • 9J. de BieF
Substitutes
  • 14Bae Seung-GyunM
  • 44B. HardleyD
  • 2A. LechkarD
  • 15Y. M'BembaD
  • 16L. RománF
  • 18Robin van AstenM
  • 1Finn OldenstamG
  • 17Rocharnio LenzM
  • 13Dean HogervorstG
Coach: Paul Nuijten
VVV Venlo 4-2-3-1
  • 13Y. SchoonderwaldtG
  • 14Raf VullersD
  • 4É. ClancyD
  • 33G. BlancquartD
  • 5Lars de BlokD
  • 8Ismail Oulad M'HandM
  • 6A. VerstraetenM
  • 19Thomas JanssenM
  • 24M. OdrissM
  • 11N. Ait MouhouM
  • 17L. SchmidtF
Substitutes
  • 21L. GörlichD
  • 43D. HendrixF
  • 31M. DavisD
  • 15Tijn JoostenD
  • 34A. RaisF
  • 22Zidane TaylanG
  • 9M. TsigkasF
  • 47M. van GrootelF
  • 35Yousri El AnbriM
Coach: Marinus Dijkhuizen

Form going into Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo

Dordrecht

Eerste Divisie

  • W1-0away to Jong PSV U2119 October 2026

VVV Venlo

Eerste Divisie

  • D4-4Jong AZ16 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Dordrecht153391936-1712
3VVV Venlo159243824+1429

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo

  • 19 December 2025VVV Venlo 3–1 DordrechtEerste Divisie
  • 3 October 2025Dordrecht 2–0 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
  • 14 March 2025Dordrecht 4–0 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
  • 18 October 2024VVV Venlo 2–3 DordrechtEerste Divisie
  • 16 February 2024Dordrecht 1–0 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
  • 8 December 2023VVV Venlo 3–1 DordrechtEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Dordrecht and VVV Venlo

Dordrecht

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

VVV Venlo

GoalsAssists

  • É. Clancy51
  • L. Schmidt51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

VVV Venlo won 4–2 at Dordrecht. The model had made a win for VVV Venlo its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Thomas Janssen 8' for VVV Venlo, Eanna Clancy 17' for VVV Venlo, Ismail Oulad M'Hand 33' for VVV Venlo, Lars de Blok 50' for VVV Venlo, Lorenzo Riccio 56' for Dordrecht, Rocharnio Lenz 90+3' for Dordrecht. On expected goals it finished 0.82–1.04.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dordrecht a 44.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 36.2% after a win, 44.0% after a draw, 50.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.1%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.

For VVV Venlo the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 84.7% going in: 88.6% after a win, 82.8% after a draw, 81.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 88.6%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Dordrecht v VVV Venlo has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 27% / 26% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 28% / 27% / 45%: the biggest move is VVV Venlo's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Dordrecht win28%▲ +1
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. VVV Venlo win45%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.