Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Utrecht 1-1 PEC Zwolle.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Utrecht, 23% draw, 21% PEC Zwolle — fair odds of 1.79, 4.35 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Utrecht at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22S. PadtG
- 2S. HoremansD
- 3M. DiddenD
- 5N. PanagiotouD
- 92A. ZagréD
- 8J. van OvereemM
- 38O. AgougilM
- 23N. VesterlundM
- 10Y. CathlineM
- 11Ángel AlarcónM
- 20D. de WitF
- 39N. AmrabatF
- 15A. BlakeF
- 31M. EppinkG
- 33K. GadellaaG
- 32P. KloosterboerD
- 18J. MedićD
- 6G. OfferhausD
- 21N. Ogidi NwankwoD
- 9Artem StepanovF
- 1J. SchendelaarG
- 3O. AertssenD
- 28S. GravesD
- 24N. ViergeverD
- 33D. van der HaarD
- 30R. ThomasM
- 8T. SommerM
- 37Gilles van der WalM
- 25T. OostingM
- 11D. MbayoM
- 17S. van HooijdonkF
- 41D. VerduinG
- 4T. VelthuisD
- 9E. SørensenF
- 42Dylan RuwardD
- 20G. ReizigerM
- 26Jadiel Pereira da GamaM
- 7Y. NamliF
- 10K. KostonsF
- 34N. FichtingerM
Form going into Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle
Utrecht
Eredivisie
- W2-1away to Twente18 October 2026
- W3-1Willem II11 October 2026
PEC Zwolle
Eredivisie
- W4-1GO Ahead Eagles18 October 2026
- L0-1Cambuur11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 12 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht
PEC Zwolle and Utrecht have met 7 times in the records we hold, Utrecht has won 3 of them to PEC Zwolle's 1, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Utrecht on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 |
| Utrecht | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 7 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
EredivisieUtrecht 1–1 PEC Zwolle - 22 Feb 2026
EredivisieUtrecht 1–1 PEC Zwolle - 31 Aug 2025
EredivisiePEC Zwolle 0–2 Utrecht - 1 Feb 2025
EredivisiePEC Zwolle 3–3 Utrecht - 11 Aug 2024
EredivisieUtrecht 1–0 PEC Zwolle - 3 Apr 2024
EredivisieUtrecht 5–1 PEC Zwolle - 27 Aug 2023
EredivisiePEC Zwolle 1–0 Utrecht
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Utrecht's attack rates 39% above PEC Zwolle's, and PEC Zwolle concede 4% fewer than Utrecht. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | 0.59 | 1.27 |
| Utrecht | 0.82 | 1.32 |
The result against the call
Utrecht and PEC Zwolle drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Utrecht at 56% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Elias Sörensen 72' for PEC Zwolle, S. van Duijn 90+1' for Utrecht. On expected goals it finished 1.66–0.95.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Utrecht a 5.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.0% after a win, 6.2% after a draw, 8.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 6.2%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.
For PEC Zwolle the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 53.5% going in: 42.3% after a win, 52.0% after a draw, 57.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 52.0%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Utrecht v PEC Zwolle has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 58% / 22% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 56% / 23% / 21%: the biggest move is Utrecht's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Utrecht win56%▼ −2
- Draw23%▲ +1
- PEC Zwolle win21%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.