Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava Super Liga prediction & result
Final score: Dukla Banská Bystrica 1-2 Spartak Trnava.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Dukla Banská Bystrica, 27% draw, 45% Spartak Trnava — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Spartak Trnava at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31L. Hrosso
- 11K. Vallo
- 23M. Bakala
- 41L. Willweber
- 13N. Sikula
- 7J. Povazanec
- 6D. Richtarech
- 73A. Hanes
- 28M. Gjorgievski
- 17R. Polievka
- 57M. Duris
- 1J. Trefil
- 3A. Adewale
- 14Joao Miranda
- 24V. Toth
- 9T. Slebodnik
- 15A. Sivicek
- 10R. Szantho
- 25E. Okechukwu
- 27N. Kubala
- 72M. Vantruba
- 24K. Kostrna
- 52E. Sabo
- 2P. Nwadike
- 3J. Carrion
- 8G. Moistsrapishvili
- 91M. Lausic
- 11P. Azango
- 30L. Khorkheli
- 20F. Trello
- 19T. Kudlicka
- 1B. Szaraz
- 21L. Fabis
- 4L. Holik
- 13M. Ujlaky
- 6R. Prochazka
- 5R. Begala
- 14T. Wildeboer
- 17L. Mehmeti
- 23J. Terenkov
Form going into Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Super Liga
- L0-2Dunajska Streda1 November 2026
- D2-2away to Slovan Bratislava24 October 2026
- W1-0Podbrezová18 October 2026
- W1-0away to AS Trencin10 October 2026
Spartak Trnava
Super Liga
- L1-2Komárno31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Skalica24 October 2026
- L0-3Slovan Bratislava17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Podbrezová11 October 2026
What these results say
- Dukla Banská Bystrica scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Dukla Banská Bystrica had two goals or fewer.
- Spartak Trnava conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Spartak Trnava failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Spartak Trnava scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Slovakia Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 14 |
| 4 | Spartak Trnava | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava
- 8 August 2026Spartak Trnava 3–0 Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
- 8 February 2025Dukla Banská Bystrica 1–4 Spartak TrnavaSuper Liga
- 22 September 2024Spartak Trnava 1–0 Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
- 24 February 2024Spartak Trnava 2–0 Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
- 8 October 2023Dukla Banská Bystrica 1–2 Spartak TrnavaSuper Liga
- 6 May 2023Spartak Trnava 0–1 Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Dukla Banská Bystrica and Spartak Trnava
Dukla Banská Bystrica
No player in Super Liga's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Spartak Trnava
GoalsAssists
- T. Kudlička31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Spartak Trnava won 2–1 at Dukla Banská Bystrica. The model had made a win for Spartak Trnava its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: T. Kudlicka 37' for Spartak Trnava, K. Kostrna 53' for Spartak Trnava, A. Hanes 78' for Dukla Banská Bystrica. On expected goals it finished 2.01–2.31.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dukla Banská Bystrica a 22.5% chance to finish in the top six: 34.5% after a win, 22.0% after a draw, 15.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.9%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.
For Spartak Trnava the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 98.4% going in: 99.6% after a win, 98.7% after a draw, 96.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.6%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Dukla Banská Bystrica v Spartak Trnava has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 25% / 27% / 48% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 28% / 27% / 45%: the biggest move is Dukla Banská Bystrica's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Dukla Banská Bystrica win28%▲ +3
- Draw27%=
- Spartak Trnava win45%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.