24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Dundee United vs Aberdeen Premiership prediction & result

Tannadice Park, Dundee
Referee: D. Dickinson
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Dundee United 3-2 Aberdeen.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Dundee United, 28% draw, 30% Aberdeen — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dundee United at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dundee United97%Draw3%Aberdeen0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Zidane Iqbalassist: Dylan Tait
14'
17'
Brad Lyons
25'
⚽Nesta Guinness-Walkerassist: Kevin Nisbet
⚽Dylan Taitassist: Kevin Ciubotaru
27'
45'
🔁Afeez Aremu Olalekanout: Lewis Smith
56'
⚽Connor Patrick Ronanassist: Lewis Smith
•Zachary Sapsford
62'
🔁Daniel Bennieout: Neil Farrugia
65'
65'
🔁Ayoub Moulouaout: Toyosi Olusanya
⚽Zachary Sapsfordassist: Dylan Tait
72'
🔁Zachary Sapsfordout: Lachlan Rose
74'
🔁Lyall Cameronout: abdoulaye yoro
74'
76'
🔁Stuart Armstrongout: Hicham Mahou

Match stats — Dundee United vs Aberdeen

44%Possession56%
14Shots20
6On target3
3Corners8
1.54xG1.58

Goals against chances

Dundee United3 from 1.54 xGmore than the chances were worth
Aberdeen2 from 1.58 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dundee United 4-3-3
  • 1J. WaltonG
  • 23J. RawlinsD
  • 3B. EsselinkD
  • 18M. ForbesD
  • 19K. CiubotaruD
  • 16L. CameronM
  • 10D. TaitM
  • 14Zidane IqbalM
  • 21J. RandallF
  • 9Z. SapsfordF
  • 77D. BennieF
Substitutes
  • 30J. AmissahG
  • 8Panutche CamaráM
  • 20N. FarrugiaF
  • 6R. GrahamD
  • 4I. IovuD
  • 93I. MetsokoF
  • 22D. NaamoD
  • 15L. RoseF
  • 26Abdoulaye YoroM
Coach: J. Goodwin
Aberdeen 4-4-2
  • 27M. MüllerG
  • 28C. CaddenD
  • 22J. MilneD
  • 21G. MolloyD
  • 24N. Guinness-WalkerD
  • 8B. LyonsM
  • 17S. ArmstrongM
  • 32A. AremuM
  • 25C. RonanM
  • 9A. MoulouaF
  • 15K. NisbetF
Substitutes
  • 10A. BriedlM
  • 2N. DevlinD
  • 53A. FasanyaF
  • 77E. GyamfiD
  • 30D. KleinG
  • 14H. MahouM
  • 31M. NteloF
  • 20T. OlusanyaF
  • 11Lewis SmithF
Coach: S. Robinson

Form going into Dundee United vs Aberdeen

Dundee United

Premiership

  • D1-1away to St Johnstone17 October 2026
  • W1-0Hibernian10 October 2026

Aberdeen

Premiership

  • W3-1St Mirren17 October 2026
  • L0-1St Johnstone11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Dundee United124531717017
11Aberdeen123271218-611

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dundee United vs Aberdeen

  • 9 May 2026Aberdeen 2–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
  • 24 February 2026Dundee United 0–0 AberdeenPremiership
  • 27 December 2025Aberdeen 1–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
  • 23 September 2025Dundee United 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
  • 17 May 2025Dundee United 2–1 AberdeenPremiership
  • 2 March 2025Aberdeen 2–2 Dundee UnitedPremiership

Leading scorers: Dundee United and Aberdeen

Dundee United

GoalsAssists

  • J. Randall33

Aberdeen

GoalsAssists

  • K. Nisbet43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dundee United beat Aberdeen 3–2. The model had made a win for Dundee United its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Zidane Iqbal 14' for Dundee United, Nesta Guinness-Walker 25' for Aberdeen, Dylan Tait 27' for Dundee United, Connor Patrick Ronan 56' for Aberdeen, Zachary Sapsford 72' for Dundee United. On expected goals it finished 1.54–1.58.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dundee United these chances to finish in the top six: 44.8% after a win, 34.9% after a draw, 30.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 44.8%.

For Aberdeen the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 42.3% going in: 50.0% after a win, 43.2% after a draw, 36.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.0%, 6.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.