24 October 2026, 15:45 UTC

Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Bnei Sakhnin Ligat Ha'al prediction & result

Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium, Kiryat Shmona
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0-1 Bnei Sakhnin.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 30% draw, 29% Bnei Sakhnin — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ironi Kiryat Shmona0%Draw4%Bnei Sakhnin96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
Mathew Anim Cudjoe
shon edri
38'
40'
⚽Saná Gomesassist: Mathew Anim Cudjoe
🔁Alexandru Popout: Niv Michael Gabay
45'
🔁Ariel Sheratzkyout: Jwan Halabi
56'
🔁Rufat Abdullazadaout: Shay Sabah
56'
🔁Talles Costaout: nadav markovitch
56'
Shay Ben David
56'
🔁shon edriout: Amit Glazer
68'
70'
🔁Ilay Hajajout: maroun gantus
75'
🔁Daniel Paraschivout: Loai Halaf
75'
🔁Ahmed Ibrahim Salmanout: Jubayer Bushnak
88'
🔁Mathew Anim Cudjoeout: Antonio Sefer

Match stats — Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Bnei Sakhnin

60%Possession40%
14Shots15
5On target6
8Corners6
0.89xG1.08

Goals against chances

Ironi Kiryat Shmona0 from 0.89 xGless than the chances were worth
Bnei Sakhnin1 from 1.08 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 4-2-3-1
  • 19DanielG
  • 28I. VaierD
  • 44S. EdriD
  • 32S. Ben-DavidD
  • 91B. ShaheenD
  • 63Alexandre SolaM
  • 8Talles CostaM
  • 21R. AbdullazadəM
  • 10A. ShirdatzkiM
  • 7A. SagnaM
  • 9A. PopF
Substitutes
  • 12J. Al HalabiF
  • 20O. DarwishD
  • 39N. GabayF
  • 24N. MarkovitchM
  • 4A. GlazerD
  • 11S. SabahF
  • 17I. ShoolmaysterD
  • 16M. SimantovD
  • 1Nikola DjurkovicG
Coach: S. Barda
Bnei Sakhnin 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. BălbărăuG
  • 13L. OwusuD
  • 4O. DahanD
  • 5I. Abu AbaidD
  • 92Saná GomesD
  • 8M. VorobjovasM
  • 6A. TahaM
  • 10M. Anim CudjoeM
  • 29A. SalmanM
  • 28I. HagagM
  • 9D. ParaschivF
Substitutes
  • 77A. SeferF
  • 22M. Abu NilG
  • 21M. Abu RiyaM
  • 11J. BushnaqF
  • 20M. GanameD
  • 2M. GantusD
  • 44A. GnamehD
  • 16L. HalafF
  • 24B. KhuriF
Coach: Y. Abukasis

Form going into Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Bnei Sakhnin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Ligat Ha'al

  • L0-1away to Maccabi Netanya17 October 2026
  • L1-3Hapoel Tel Aviv10 October 2026

Bnei Sakhnin

Ligat Ha'al

  • W2-0Hapoel Petah Tikva17 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Maccabi Tel Aviv10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligat Ha'al table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Ironi Kiryat Shmona10217917-87
7Bnei Sakhnin1034388013

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Bnei Sakhnin

  • 4 August 2026Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–0 Bnei SakhninToto Cup Ligat Al
  • 13 May 2026Bnei Sakhnin 0–4 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
  • 4 April 2026Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2–0 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
  • 2 December 2025Bnei Sakhnin 1–1 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
  • 6 August 2025Bnei Sakhnin 1–0 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaToto Cup Ligat Al
  • 3 May 2025Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al

The result against the call

Bnei Sakhnin won 1–0 at Ironi Kiryat Shmona. The model had leaned towards a win for Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 41% and given a win for Bnei Sakhnin 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Saná Gomes 40' for Bnei Sakhnin. On expected goals it finished 0.89–1.08.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ironi Kiryat Shmona a 47.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 39.3% after a win, 50.3% after a draw, 57.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 57.9%, 10 points higher than before the match.

For Bnei Sakhnin the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 32.4% going in: 20.8% after a win, 31.9% after a draw, 39.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.8%, 11.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Bnei Sakhnin has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 41% / 30% / 29%: the biggest move is Ironi Kiryat Shmona's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Ironi Kiryat Shmona win41%▼ −7
  2. Draw30%▲ +2
  3. Bnei Sakhnin win29%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.