24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Rangers vs St Johnstone Premiership prediction & result

Ibrox Stadium, Glasgow
Referee: C. Graham
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Rangers 4-0 St Johnstone.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% Rangers, 22% draw, 17% St Johnstone — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rangers at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rangers99%Draw1%St Johnstone0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Kevin Kelsyassist: Ryan Naderi
29'
45'
🔁Daniel Finlaysonout: Božo Mikulić
45'
🔁Josh Campbellout: Danny schmidt
45'
🔁Josh Fowlerout: Kai Fotheringham
⚽Ryan Naderi
61'
64'
🔁Jamie Gullanout: Logan Chalmers
⚽Kevin Kelsy
66'
🔁Dan Neilout: Tuur Rommens
69'
🔁Ryan Naderiout: Djeidi Gassama
69'
73'
•Kai Fotheringham
74'
Kai Fotheringham
🔁Dujon Sterlingout: Ben Godfrey
80'
🔁Min-su Kimout: Bojan Miovski
80'
80'
🔁Reece McAlearout: Jason Holt
🔁Kevin Kelsyout: Tochi Chukwuani
83'
⚽Tochi Chukwuaniassist: Djeidi Gassama
87'
90+2'
Taylor Steven
Badredine Bouanani
90+2'

Match stats — Rangers vs St Johnstone

64%Possession36%
21Shots9
9On target2
13Corners2
4.61xG0.61

Goals against chances

Rangers4 from 4.61 xGless than the chances were worth
St Johnstone0 from 0.61 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rangers 4-2-3-1
  • 1I. PandurG
  • 21D. SterlingD
  • 37E. FernandezD
  • 24O. MakhanyaD
  • 29J. PenriceD
  • 6D. NeilM
  • 43N. RaskinM
  • 26B. BouananiM
  • 20R. NaderiM
  • 10Minsu KimM
  • 19K. KelsyF
Substitutes
  • 42T. ChukwuaniM
  • 31L. KellyG
  • 28B. MiovskiF
  • 18K. NedeljkovićD
  • 25T. RommensD
  • 4B. GodfreyD
  • 23D. GassamaF
  • 22V. DragojevićM
  • 52Findlay CurtisF
Coach: D. McInnes
St Johnstone 3-4-2-1
  • 1T. StewardG
  • 33L. SmithD
  • 19D. FinlaysonD
  • 3C. DiabateD
  • 7T. StevenM
  • 42R. McAlearM
  • 30J. CotterillM
  • 2E. AlıçM
  • 10J. GullanM
  • 32J. CampbellM
  • 9J. FowlerF
Substitutes
  • 18K. FotheringhamF
  • 14M. FouldsD
  • 8J. HoltM
  • 6B. MikulićD
  • 99R. PatonF
  • 22D. SchmidtF
  • 20R. SinclairG
  • 23L. ChalmersM
  • 26M. ToddM
Coach: S. Valakari

Form going into Rangers vs St Johnstone

Rangers

Premiership

  • D2-2away to Dundee17 October 2026
  • W3-1Kilmarnock10 October 2026

St Johnstone

Premiership

  • D1-1Dundee United17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Rangers12831219+1227
7St Johnstone134541720-317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rangers vs St Johnstone

  • 12 January 2025Rangers 3–1 St JohnstonePremiership
  • 1 December 2024St Johnstone 0–1 RangersPremiership
  • 6 October 2024Rangers 2–0 St JohnstonePremiership
  • 17 August 2024Rangers 2–0 St JohnstoneLeague Cup
  • 18 February 2024St Johnstone 0–3 RangersPremiership
  • 20 December 2023Rangers 2–0 St JohnstonePremiership

Leading scorers: Rangers and St Johnstone

Rangers

GoalsAssists

  • R. Naderi63
  • K. Kelsy40

St Johnstone

GoalsAssists

  • J. Fowler61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rangers beat St Johnstone 4–0. The model had made a win for Rangers its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Kevin Kelsy 29' for Rangers, Ryan Naderi 61' for Rangers, Kevin Kelsy 66' for Rangers, Tochi Chukwuani 87' for Rangers. Sent off: Kai Fotheringham (St Johnstone) 74'. On expected goals it finished 4.61–0.61.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rangers a 14.0% chance to finish top of the regular season: 15.4% after a win, 11.3% after a draw, 10.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.4%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

For St Johnstone the question was the chance to finish in the top six: 58.1% after a win, 51.5% after a draw, 46.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 46.8%.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rangers v St Johnstone has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 64% / 21% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 61% / 22% / 17%: the biggest move is Rangers's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Rangers win61%▼ −3
  2. Draw22%▲ +1
  3. St Johnstone win17%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.