25 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Hibernian vs Celtic Premiership prediction & result

Easter Road, Edinburgh
Referee: R. Lee
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Hibernian 1-2 Celtic.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% Hibernian, 24% draw, 55% Celtic — fair odds of 4.76, 4.17 and 1.82.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Celtic at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Owen Eldingassist: Joe Newell
3'
5'
⚽Jason Kerr (OG)
43'
⚽Camilo Duran
45+1'
Kasper Hogh
Thibault Klidjé
47'
52'
🔁Colby Donovanout: Alistair Johnston
64'
🔁Callum Osmandout: Jota
64'
🔁Kasper Hoghout: Haissem Hassan
🔁Jamie McGrathout: Ante Suto
68'
🔁Thibault Klidjéout: Rabbi Matondo
68'
73'
🔁Alistair Johnstonout: Cameron Carter-Vickers
73'
🔁Camilo Duranout: Shumaira Mheuka
🔁Joe Newellout: Azeem Abdulai
77'
80'
Kieran Tierney
🔁Miguel Changa Chaiwaout: Grant Hanley
82'
Marko Ivezic
85'
85'
Shumaira Mheuka

Match stats — Hibernian vs Celtic

39%Possession61%
13Shots15
2On target4
2Corners6
1.24xG1.16

Goals against chances

Hibernian1 from 1.24 xGabout what the chances were worth
Celtic2 from 1.16 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hibernian 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. SallingerG
  • 25F. PasslackD
  • 6J. KerrD
  • 5M. IvezićD
  • 3A. MayorD
  • 14M. ChaiwaM
  • 11J. NewellM
  • 8J. MulliganM
  • 17J. McGrathM
  • 18T. KlidjeM
  • 7O. EldingF
Substitutes
  • 4G. HanleyD
  • 15J. IredaleD
  • 39R. MatondoM
  • 19N. CaddenM
  • 13J. SmithG
  • 22A. ŠutoF
  • 47A. AbdulaiM
  • 12Alex WilliamsD
  • 34Z. BruceM
Coach: M. Reedijk
Celtic 4-2-3-1
  • 26S. JohnstoneG
  • 51Colby DonovanD
  • 47D. MurrayD
  • 5L. ScalesD
  • 63K. TierneyD
  • 42C. McGregorM
  • 22M. BaurM
  • 11C. DuránM
  • 8B. NygrenM
  • 19C. OsmandM
  • 9K. HøghF
Substitutes
  • 18O. SørensenM
  • 20C. Carter-VickersD
  • 49J. ForrestM
  • 23H. HassanF
  • 2A. JohnstonD
  • 7JotaF
  • 29Shumaira MheukaF
  • 21A. Oxlade-ChamberlainM
  • 1V. SinisaloG
Coach: M. O'Neill

Form going into Hibernian vs Celtic

Hibernian

Premiership

  • L1-2Falkirk17 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Dundee United10 October 2026

Celtic

Premiership

  • W7-1Heart of Midlothian18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Hibernian123271517-211
1Celtic1310122810+1831

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Celtic

  • 3 May 2026Hibernian 1–2 CelticPremiership
  • 22 February 2026Celtic 1–2 HibernianPremiership
  • 30 November 2025Hibernian 1–2 CelticPremiership
  • 27 September 2025Celtic 0–0 HibernianPremiership
  • 10 May 2025Celtic 3–1 HibernianPremiership
  • 9 March 2025Celtic 2–0 HibernianFA Cup

Leading scorers: Hibernian and Celtic

Hibernian

GoalsAssists

  • C. Wright31

Celtic

GoalsAssists

  • C. Durán76
  • B. Nygren64
  • K. Høgh33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Celtic won 2–1 at Hibernian. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Celtic at 55%. The goals: Owen Elding 3' for Hibernian, Jason Kerr (own goal) 5' for Celtic, Camilo Duran 43' for Celtic. On expected goals it finished 1.24–1.16.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hibernian a 38.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 30.8% after a win, 36.7% after a draw, 42.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.0%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.

For Celtic the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 83.9% going in: 86.6% after a win, 81.3% after a draw, 79.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 86.6%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hibernian v Celtic has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 25% / 26% / 49% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 21% / 24% / 55%: the biggest move is Celtic's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Hibernian win21%▼ −4
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Celtic win55%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.