Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Haifa Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Maccabi Tel Aviv 6-2 Hapoel Haifa.
Before kick-off the model made it 65% Maccabi Tel Aviv, 20% draw, 15% Hapoel Haifa — fair odds of 1.54, 5.00 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Maccabi Tel Aviv at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Haifa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. MelikaG
- 2J. TavernierD
- 5M. CamaraD
- 13R. ShlomoD
- 22N. Ben HarushD
- 28I. SissokhoM
- 11S. YehezkelM
- 42Dor PeretzM
- 16G. KanichowskyM
- 29Hélio VarelaM
- 19E. MadmonF
- 90R. MishpatiG
- 41I. Ben HamoD
- 77O. DavidaF
- 30I. NoyM
- 33H. LayousF
- 36I. ShaharM
- 18D. GlazerM
- 9E. SoklerF
- 45Noam LevyF
- 1Y. GerafiG
- 2N. CohenD
- 25G. DibaD
- 13D. ŽuparićD
- 5I. KričakD
- 77A. MendyD
- 15Y. GonenM
- 55N. SabagM
- 10S. EliasM
- 7L. RotmanM
- 17A. TurgemanF
- 14W. HabiballaF
- 12A. AyiasF
- 4D. MalulD
- 23M. AmbarG
- 3T. ArbelD
- 18Itay ZafraniF
- 21C DiakitéF
- 42T. NaimM
- 11I. S. FahimaM
Form going into Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Haifa
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Ligat Ha'al
- D0-0away to Beitar Jerusalem19 October 2026
- D0-0Bnei Sakhnin10 October 2026
Hapoel Haifa
Ligat Ha'al
- L0-2Hapoel Ramat Gan17 October 2026
- W2-1Maccabi Petah Tikva10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 24 |
| 8 | Hapoel Haifa | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Haifa
- 5 April 2026Hapoel Haifa 1–4 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 27 December 2025Maccabi Tel Aviv 5–0 Hapoel HaifaState Cup
- 3 December 2025Maccabi Tel Aviv 2–1 Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 26 April 2025Hapoel Haifa 1–3 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 15 March 2025Maccabi Tel Aviv 3–0 Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 8 March 2025Maccabi Tel Aviv 2–0 Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Maccabi Tel Aviv and Hapoel Haifa
Maccabi Tel Aviv
GoalsAssists
- Dor Peretz72
- E. Sokler51
- E. Madmon33
Hapoel Haifa
GoalsAssists
- A. Turgeman51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Maccabi Tel Aviv beat Hapoel Haifa 6–2. The model had made a win for Maccabi Tel Aviv its most likely outcome, at 65%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Elad Madmon 15' for Maccabi Tel Aviv, Arial Mendy 38' for Hapoel Haifa, Mohamed Ali Camara 55' for Maccabi Tel Aviv, Dor Peretz 58' for Maccabi Tel Aviv, Sagiv Yehezkel 62' for Maccabi Tel Aviv, Alon Turgeman 72' for Hapoel Haifa, Mohamed Ali Camara 82' for Maccabi Tel Aviv, Itamar Noy 88' for Maccabi Tel Aviv. On expected goals it finished 3.43–0.65.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Maccabi Tel Aviv a 53.5% chance to finish top of the regular season: 57.7% after a win, 46.4% after a draw, 41.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 57.7%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.
For Hapoel Haifa the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 28.6% going in: 39.6% after a win, 28.9% after a draw, 26.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.1%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.