24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

St Mirren vs Dundee Premiership prediction & result

The SMISA Stadium, Paisley
Referee: S. McLean
Full time2 – 1

Final score: St Mirren 2-1 Dundee.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% St Mirren, 28% draw, 42% Dundee — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dundee at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St Mirren96%Draw4%Dundee0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Calvin Ramsayassist: Eseosa Sule
20'
⚽Eseosa Suleassist: Killian Phillips
56'
62'
🔁Joseph Bevanout: Charlie Reilly
Eseosa Sule
63'
🔁Eseosa Suleout: Jake Young
68'
69'
🔁Callum Jonesout: Ryan Finnigan
Ismeal Kabia
71'
74'
⚽Bradley·Fink
🔁Ismeal Kabiaout: Chris Mochrie
80'
Luke Thomas
82'
82'
🔁Alan Forrestout: Alfie Harrison
84'
Alfie Harrison
Alexander Gogić
90+3'
90+3'
S. Pressley
90+3'
Bradley·Fink
90+3'
Brad Halliday

Match stats — St Mirren vs Dundee

49%Possession51%
9Shots17
5On target4
2Corners5
1.48xG1.5

Goals against chances

St Mirren2 from 1.48 xGmore than the chances were worth
Dundee1 from 1.50 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St Mirren 3-4-3
  • 1J. ChapmanG
  • 22M. FraserD
  • 13A. GogićD
  • 53Henry FieldsonD
  • 47C. RamsayM
  • 8R. CarrM
  • 88K. PhillipsM
  • 3D. JohnM
  • 16L. ThomasF
  • 9Eseosa SuleF
  • 19Ismeal KabiaF
Substitutes
  • 4L. DonnellyM
  • 6Louis JacksonD
  • 37C. McEvoyM
  • 23C. MochrieM
  • 10SamuM
  • 2J. RichardsonD
  • 35Grant TamoseviciusG
  • 30F. TaylorM
  • 20J. YoungF
Coach: Craig McLeish
Dundee 4-4-2
  • 1O. GoodmanG
  • 7D. WrightD
  • 4R. AstleyD
  • 5O. BevanD
  • 12I. SamuelsD
  • 27J. BevanM
  • 28C. JonesM
  • 48E. HamiltonM
  • 14A. ForrestM
  • 11A. HayF
  • 21B. FinkF
Substitutes
  • 8R. FinniganM
  • 17Ž. BeširM
  • 77Alfie HarrisonM
  • 13K. O'HaraG
  • 3I. OdutayoD
  • 18C. ReillyF
  • 6M. AkinmboniD
  • 26J. WrightD
  • 2B. HallidayD
Coach: S. Pressley

Form going into St Mirren vs Dundee

St Mirren

Premiership

  • L1-3away to Aberdeen17 October 2026

Dundee

Premiership

  • D2-2Rangers17 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Falkirk10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8St Mirren134271222-1014
5Dundee125251815+317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St Mirren vs Dundee

  • 2 May 2026Dundee 1–0 St MirrenPremiership
  • 31 January 2026St Mirren 0–0 DundeePremiership
  • 29 November 2025Dundee 3–1 St MirrenPremiership
  • 27 September 2025St Mirren 1–0 DundeePremiership
  • 5 April 2025Dundee 2–0 St MirrenPremiership
  • 29 December 2024St Mirren 1–2 DundeePremiership

Leading scorers: St Mirren and Dundee

St Mirren

No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Dundee

GoalsAssists

  • B. Fink40
  • J. Westley40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

St Mirren beat Dundee 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Dundee at 42% and given a win for St Mirren 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Calvin Ramsay 20' for St Mirren, Eseosa Sule 56' for St Mirren, Bradley·Fink 74' for Dundee. On expected goals it finished 1.48–1.50.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave St Mirren these chances to finish in the bottom three: 63.8% after a win, 72.1% after a draw, 76.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 63.8%.

For Dundee the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 65.4% going in: 72.5% after a win, 63.1% after a draw, 58.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.8%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on St Mirren v Dundee has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 36% / 29% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 30% / 28% / 42%: the biggest move is Dundee's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. St Mirren win30%▼ −6
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Dundee win42%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.