7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Arbroath vs Ayr Utd Championship prediction & result

Gayfield Park, Arbroath
Referee: C. Graham
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Arbroath 4-1 Ayr Utd.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Arbroath, 28% draw, 37% Ayr Utd — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ayr Utd at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arbroath99%Draw1%Ayr Utd0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
B. Summers
⚽T. O'Brienassist: M. McKenna
19'
⚽M. McKenna
23'
B. Paterson
31'
🔁B. Patersonout: R. Flynn
46'
C. Watson
64'
65'
🔁J. Landersout: K. Shanks
65'
🔁E. Walkerout: O. Stirton
🔁M. McKennaout: K. Magennis
75'
⚽G. Reillyassist: K. Magennis
77'
🔁G. Reillyout: A. Winter
79'
80'
🔁R. Taylorout: J. Murphy
81'
🔁M. Rusout: J. Douglas
⚽J. MacIntyre
83'
87'
⚽K. Shanks
87'
🔁R. Lyonout: O. Whyte
🔁T. O'Brienout: S. Constable
87'

Line-ups

Arbroath
  • 1A. McAdams
  • 16C. Watson
  • 5T. O'Brien
  • 22C. Dewar
  • 4B. Paterson
  • 12S. Stewart
  • 17D. Reid
  • 25J. MacIntyre
  • 14M. McKenna
  • 11R. Dow
  • 10G. Reilly
Substitutes
  • 21J. Pettigrew
  • 2S. Morrison
  • 3C. Hamilton
  • 7D. Gold
  • 8R. Flynn
  • 9A. Winter
  • 20S. Constable
  • 27K. Magennis
Coach: David Gold
Ayr Utd
  • 38L. Russell
  • 32D. Watret
  • 20L. McBeth
  • 5K. Holt
  • 33S. McMann
  • 23M. Rus
  • 6R. Lyon
  • 11R. Taylor
  • 16B. Summers
  • 9J. Landers
  • 21E. Walker
Substitutes
  • 2N. McAllister
  • 3L. Dick
  • 7O. Stirton
  • 10K. Shanks
  • 12O. Whyte
  • 15J. Murphy
  • 22M. McKenzie
  • 34J. Douglas
Coach: Gary Naysmith

Form going into Arbroath vs Ayr Utd

Arbroath

Championship

  • L0-4Raith Rovers31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Livingston24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Inverness CT17 October 2026
  • L1-2Morton10 October 2026

Ayr Utd

Championship

  • W3-2Queen's Park31 October 2026
  • L0-1Partick16 October 2026
  • D1-1Dunfermline10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Arbroath did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Arbroath conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Arbroath failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Arbroath144281123-1214
7Ayr Utd145361719-218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arbroath vs Ayr Utd

  • 1 August 2026Ayr Utd 2–0 ArbroathChampionship
  • 11 April 2026Ayr Utd 1–0 ArbroathChampionship
  • 3 March 2026Arbroath 1–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 15 November 2025Ayr Utd 1–1 ArbroathChampionship
  • 1 August 2025Arbroath 1–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 19 July 2025Ayr Utd 4–0 ArbroathLeague Cup

The result against the call

Arbroath beat Ayr Utd 4–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Ayr Utd at 37% and given a win for Arbroath 35%. The goals: T. O'Brien 19' for Arbroath, M. McKenna 23' for Arbroath, G. Reilly 77' for Arbroath, J. MacIntyre 83' for Arbroath, K. Shanks 87' for Ayr Utd.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Arbroath a 61.9% chance to finish in the bottom two: 54.2% after a win, 62.8% after a draw, 69.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.2%, 7.7 points lower than before the match.

For Ayr Utd the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 13.3% going in: 8.5% after a win, 12.9% after a draw, 16.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.9%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Arbroath v Ayr Utd has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 28% / 37%: the biggest move is Arbroath's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Arbroath win35%▼ −5
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Ayr Utd win37%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.