Dunfermline vs Livingston Championship prediction & result
Final score: Dunfermline 0-0 Livingston.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Dunfermline, 27% draw, 25% Livingston — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Dunfermline at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1A. Oxborough
- 24D. Lobban
- 15S. Cleall-Harding
- 6N. Abdulai
- 47R. Fraser
- 22K. Bray
- 14A. Amade
- 33J. Cooper
- 16R. MacLeod
- 99O. Adams
- 26A. Tod
- 12M. Dibaga
- 3J. Tod
- 7C. Morrison
- 8C. Gilmour
- 10O. Shaw
- 11S. Kearney
- 17O. Thomas
- 18K. Corbally
- 25A. Donnelly
- 28J. Prior
- 22J. Doherty
- 23B. Kabongolo
- 5R. McGowan
- 4J. Wilkie
- 8S. Pittman
- 20E. Danso
- 16C. Palmer
- 27G. Carey
- 9R. Muirhead
- 19B. van Hoeven
- 14J. Hamilton
- 6A. Denholm
- 7T. Sinclair
- 10S. Nicholson
- 17S. May
- 21B. Iseni
- 25B. Anderson
- 30S. Blaney
- 39L. Polworth
Form going into Dunfermline vs Livingston
Dunfermline
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Ayr Utd10 October 2026
Livingston
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Partick10 October 2026
- L1-2Ayr Utd3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Scotland Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dunfermline | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 25 |
| 5 | Livingston | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dunfermline vs Livingston
- 22 August 2026Livingston 2–0 DunfermlineChampionship
- 2 April 2025Dunfermline 1–0 LivingstonChampionship
- 15 February 2025Livingston 0–0 DunfermlineChampionship
- 5 February 2025Dunfermline 0–2 LivingstonChallenge Cup
- 29 October 2024Dunfermline 3–0 LivingstonChampionship
The result against the call
Dunfermline and Livingston drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Dunfermline at 48% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dunfermline a 64.5% chance to finish in the top four: 70.5% after a win, 62.2% after a draw, 54.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 62.2%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.
For Livingston the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 40.5% going in: 49.8% after a win, 40.8% after a draw, 35.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 40.8%.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Dunfermline v Livingston has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is Dunfermline's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Dunfermline win48%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Livingston win25%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.