17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Inverness CT vs Arbroath Championship prediction & result

Tulloch Caledonian Stadium, Inverness
Referee: S. Murdoch
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Inverness CT 2-0 Arbroath.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Inverness CT, 28% draw, 38% Arbroath — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Arbroath at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Inverness CT99%Draw1%Arbroath0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽C. MacLeod
39'
⚽A. Bavidgeassist: P. Allan
42'
45+1'
🔁T. Beadlingout: C. Dewar
⚽P. Allan (pen)assist: P. Allan
59'
67'
M. McKenna
68'
🔁J. MacIntyreout: S. Stewart
🔁L. Soleout: R. Duncan
72'
🔁L. Stewartout: D. E. Osong
72'
🔁A. Mackinnonout: R. MacGregor
76'
77'
🔁G. Reillyout: A. Winter
77'
🔁R. Dowout: C. Daly
🔁A. Bavidgeout: N. Boutin
85'

Line-ups

Inverness CT
  • 1R. Munro
  • 4G. Shinnie
  • 5R. Savage
  • 6D. Devine
  • 2C. MacLeod
  • 7P. Allan
  • 8A. Mackinnon
  • 17L. Sole
  • 35A. Stewart
  • 9L. Stewart
  • 36A. Bavidge
Substitutes
  • 21L. Ross
  • 3N. Boutin
  • 10D. Wotherspoon
  • 12D. MacKay
  • 15K. Smith
  • 16R. Duncan
  • 19M. Bates
  • 20D. E. Osong
  • 26R. MacGregor
Coach: Scott Kellacher
Arbroath
  • 1A. McAdams
  • 4B. Paterson
  • 5T. O'Brien
  • 6T. Beadling
  • 16C. Watson
  • 8R. Flynn
  • 17D. Reid
  • 25J. MacIntyre
  • 14M. McKenna
  • 11R. Dow
  • 10G. Reilly
Substitutes
  • 21J. Pettigrew
  • 3C. Hamilton
  • 7D. Gold
  • 12S. Stewart
  • 19C. Daly
  • 22C. Dewar
  • 9A. Winter
Coach: Colin Hamilton

Form going into Inverness CT vs Arbroath

Inverness CT

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Queen's Park13 October 2026
  • W2-0Stenhousemuir10 October 2026

Arbroath

Championship

  • L1-2Morton10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Inverness CT155552020020
8Arbroath144281123-1214

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Inverness CT vs Arbroath

  • 8 August 2026Arbroath 0–0 Inverness CTChampionship
  • 26 April 2025Inverness CT 3–0 ArbroathLeague One
  • 8 February 2025Arbroath 3–0 Inverness CTLeague One
  • 14 December 2024Inverness CT 0–2 ArbroathLeague One
  • 5 October 2024Arbroath 1–0 Inverness CTLeague One

The result against the call

Inverness CT beat Arbroath 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Arbroath at 38% and given a win for Inverness CT 34%. The goals: C. MacLeod 39' for Inverness CT, A. Bavidge 42' for Inverness CT.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Inverness CT a 18.1% chance to finish in the top four: 23.2% after a win, 16.9% after a draw, 13.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.2%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.

For Arbroath the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 38.2% going in: 44.0% after a win, 36.8% after a draw, 32.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.3%, 5.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.