15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Gent vs Aarhus UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Planet Group Arena, Gent
Referee: B. Sariev
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Gent 1-0 Aarhus.

Before kick-off the model made it 62% Gent, 23% draw, 15% Aarhus — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gent at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gent98%Draw2%Aarhus0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
🔁M. Andersonout: F. Emmery
46'
🔁D. L. Gretarssonout: T. Molgaard
🔁S. Van Der Heydenout: M. Diallo
46'
58'
J. Bogere
62'
🔁K. Arnstadout: M. Knudsen
🔁M. Volckaertout: H. Goore
66'
M. Delorge
73'
76'
M. Solbakken
77'
🔁E. Kahlout: F. Tingager
77'
🔁M. Solbakkenout: J. Jonsson
🔁M. Delorgeout: L. Lopes
77'
T. De Vlieger
86'
⚽H. Gooreassist: T. Araujo
87'

Match stats — Gent vs Aarhus

52%Possession48%
22Shots4
4On target1
11Corners2
2.24xG0.23

Goals against chances

Gent1 from 2.24 xGless than the chances were worth
Aarhus0 from 0.23 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gent 3-1-4-2
  • 33Davy RoefG
  • 3Maksim PaskotsiD
  • 16Christian BurgessD
  • 44Siebe Van der HeydenD
  • 27Tibe De VliegerM
  • 7Michel Ange BalikwishaM
  • 57Matties VolckaertM
  • 17Mathias DelorgeM
  • 20Tiago AraújoM
  • 75Ibrahima CisseF
  • 11Momodou SonkoF
Substitutes
  • 56Mamadou DialloD
  • 45Hyllarion GooreF
  • 22Leonardo LopesM
  • 30Kjell PeersmanG
  • 18Matisse SamoiseM
  • 39Abdul AyindeD
  • 8László BénesM
  • 10Aimé OmgbaM
  • 14Kyrell WilsonF
Aarhus 3-5-2
  • 21Mads HedenstadG
  • 25Colin RöslerD
  • 3Daníel GrétarssonD
  • 19Eric KahlD
  • 26Jacob AndersenM
  • 18Callum McCowattM
  • 7Markus SolbakkenM
  • 10Kristian ArnstadM
  • 23Mikael AndersonM
  • 27Stefen TchamcheF
  • 28James BogereF
Substitutes
  • 39Frederik EmmeryF
  • 14Tobias MølgaardD
  • 4Magnus KnudsenM
  • 5Frederik TingagerD
  • 16Jens JønssonM
  • 42Marius van der RaadG
  • 1Jesper HansenG
  • 33Luka CalløD
  • 29Rasmus CarstensenD

Form going into Gent vs Aarhus

Gent

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Zulte Waregem10 October 2026
  • W2-1Standard Liege18 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Genk13 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Cercle Brugge6 September 2026
  • W1-0OH Leuven3 September 2026

Aarhus

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Sonderjyske12 October 2026
  • D2-2away to AC Horsens20 September 2026
  • L0-2away to FC Nordsjaelland13 September 2026
  • D2-2Silkeborg5 September 2026
  • L0-2FC Midtjylland2 September 2026

What these results say

  • Gent went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Gent scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Gent won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Aarhus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Aarhus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Gent311112-14
24Aarhus302112-12

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Gent beat Aarhus 1–0. The model had made a win for Gent its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: H. Goore 87' for Gent. On expected goals it finished 2.24–0.23.

How the call on Gent v Aarhus has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 57% / 25% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 62% / 23% / 15%: the biggest move is Gent's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Gent win62%▲ +5
  2. Draw23%▼ −2
  3. Aarhus win15%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.