1 November 2026, 13:30 UTC

Emmen vs Den Bosch Eerste Divisie prediction & result

De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen
Full time0 – 5

Final score: Emmen 0-5 Den Bosch.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Emmen, 26% draw, 23% Den Bosch — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Emmen at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽Kevin Monzialoassist: Devon Findell·De Corte
29'
⚽Devon Findell·De Corte
🔁Alessandro Hojabrpourout: Mustafa Abdullatif
32'
🔁Freddy Quispelout: Daan Lambers
45'
M. van Dam
59'
61'
🔁Ilias Boumassaoudiout: Lorenzo Hoffman
63'
⚽Jeffry Fortesassist: Devon Findell·De Corte
69'
🔁Sebastian Karlsson Grachout: Emian-Johar Semedo
🔁Michael Breijout: Chiel Sunder
71'
🔁Sybrand Veldhuisout: Luca Denk
71'
77'
🔁Boris van Schuppenout: Jack de Vries
77'
🔁Stan Maasout: Jasper Van Heertum
🔁Luca Everinkout: Christian ostergaard
77'
83'
⚽Kevin Monzialoassist: Lorenzo Hoffman
89'
⚽Y. Dedelhomme (OG)

Match stats — Emmen vs Den Bosch

57%Possession43%
11Shots21
5On target11
4Corners6
0.96xG3.83

Goals against chances

Emmen0 from 0.96 xGless than the chances were worth
Den Bosch5 from 3.83 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Emmen 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. KarssiesG
  • 24L. EverinkD
  • 25R. KongoloD
  • 3Y. Dede-LhommeD
  • 17B. Van HoveD
  • 21A. HojabrpourM
  • 7T. RheinM
  • 40S. VeldhuisM
  • 12F. QuispelM
  • 22M. BreijM
  • 9J. CooperF
Substitutes
  • 18V. CarusD
  • 8L. DenkM
  • 2J. MukehD
  • 27J. HuijzerM
  • 23D. LambersF
  • 38Kevin NorderG
  • 33K. RoosG
  • 15C. SunderM
  • 14Stan van ManenF
Coach: M. van Dam
Den Bosch 3-1-4-2
  • 1P. van de MerbelG
  • 22Jeffry FortesD
  • 33M. LarosD
  • 3S. MaasD
  • 18H. EikelboomM
  • 2S. BarglanM
  • 35B. van SchuppenM
  • 10Devon DecorteM
  • 40I. BoumassaoudiM
  • 9S. Karlsson GrachF
  • 8K. MonzialoF
Substitutes
  • 4J. van HeertumD
  • 39S. van DaalenM
  • 11J. De VriesM
  • 19R. WoltersF
  • 16Wang BohaoM
  • 17E. SemedoF
  • 21F. MurreG
  • 27L. HoffmanF
  • 25Silvan BrokerD
Coach: Bart Schreuder

Form going into Emmen vs Den Bosch

Emmen

Eerste Divisie

  • W2-0away to Vitesse23 October 2026
  • W2-1Almere City FC17 October 2026

Den Bosch

Eerste Divisie

  • D2-2MVV23 October 2026
  • W2-1FC OSS16 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Emmen158162830-225
10Den Bosch155462426-219

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Emmen vs Den Bosch

  • 30 January 2026Den Bosch 1–1 EmmenEerste Divisie
  • 29 August 2025Emmen 3–1 Den BoschEerste Divisie
  • 20 December 2024Emmen 0–3 Den BoschEerste Divisie
  • 20 September 2024Den Bosch 1–0 EmmenEerste Divisie
  • 2 August 2024Emmen 1–0 Den BoschFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 May 2024Den Bosch 1–2 EmmenEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Emmen and Den Bosch

Emmen

GoalsAssists

  • J. Cooper113
  • F. Quispel72

Den Bosch

GoalsAssists

  • S. Karlsson Grach60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Den Bosch won 5–0 at Emmen. The model had leaned towards a win for Emmen at 51% and given a win for Den Bosch 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kevin Monzialo 5' for Den Bosch, Devon Findell·De Corte 29' for Den Bosch, Jeffry Fortes 63' for Den Bosch, Kevin Monzialo 83' for Den Bosch, Y. Dedelhomme (own goal) 89' for Den Bosch. On expected goals it finished 0.96–3.83.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Emmen a 81.7% chance to finish in the top eight: 85.2% after a win, 79.7% after a draw, 75.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 75.4%, 6.3 points lower than before the match.

For Den Bosch the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 17.2% going in: 11.0% after a win, 15.7% after a draw, 19.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.0%, 6.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Emmen v Den Bosch has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 49% / 26% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 51% / 26% / 23%: the biggest move is Emmen's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Emmen win51%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Den Bosch win23%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.