2 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda Eerste Divisie prediction & result

De Herdgang, Eindhoven
Referee: Wouter Wiersma
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Jong PSV U21 0-2 NAC Breda.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Jong PSV U21, 28% draw, 34% NAC Breda — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Jong PSV U21 at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Jong PSV U210%Draw1%NAC Breda99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
Jannes Van Hecke
Madi Monamay
24'
🔁Ayoni Santosout: Souleymane Sidibe
29'
Amir Bouhamdi
31'
38'
🔁Jannes Van Heckeout: Brahim Ghalidi
Mikkel Bro Hansen
45+1'
58'
🔁Maximilien Balardout: Paul Gladon
🔁Shuryjano Cornecionout: Philip Holseter-Karlsen
60'
🔁Mikkel Bro Hansenout: Boet Mulders
60'
🔁Noah Fernandezout: Lyfe Oldenstam
60'
75'
⚽Charles-Andreas Brymassist: Boyd Lucassen
🔁Amir Bouhamdiout: Jairo Beerens
76'
82'
⚽Charles-Andreas Brymassist: Mohamed Nassoh
83'
🔁Moussa Soumanoout: Pepijn Reulen
83'
🔁Rio·Hillenout: Fredrik Jensen

Match stats — Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda

34%Possession66%
6Shots31
2On target7
0Corners4
0.29xG3.12

Goals against chances

Jong PSV U210 from 0.29 xGabout what the chances were worth
NAC Breda2 from 3.12 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Jong PSV U21 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. SmolenaarsG
  • 2M. BresserD
  • 3F. MeriénD
  • 4M. MonamayD
  • 5R. ManuhutuD
  • 8S. CornecionM
  • 6N. FernandezM
  • 7F. KluitM
  • 10A. BouhamdiM
  • 11A. SantosM
  • 9M. HansenF
Substitutes
  • 15L. OldenstamD
  • 17J. BeerensF
  • 14Emre Can DuranD
  • 20P. Holseter-KarlsenM
  • 21B. MuldersM
  • 16Khadim NgomG
  • 18S. SidibeM
  • 19L. NistelrooyF
  • 23Stijn KuijstenG
Coach: Rens Sleegers
NAC Breda 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. VerripsG
  • 2B. LucassenD
  • 4L. GreimlD
  • 22R. HillenD
  • 12J. Van den BerghD
  • 6M. BalardM
  • 14K. SowahM
  • 78J. Van HeckeM
  • 10M. NassohM
  • 28C. BrymM
  • 9M. SoumanoF
Substitutes
  • 23R. KortsmitG
  • 31K. LamprouG
  • 27Karim MperanyiF
  • 34I. NazihM
  • 8F. Oldrup JensenM
  • 11G. MisehouyM
  • 26P. ReulenF
  • 33E. IkpiaF
  • 19P. GladonF
Coach: R. Kruijs

Form going into Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda

Jong PSV U21

Eerste Divisie

  • W2-1away to FC Eindhoven23 October 2026
  • L0-1Dordrecht19 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Roda9 October 2026

NAC Breda

Eerste Divisie

  • D1-1Heracles23 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Helmond Sport16 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Jong PSV U21144551822-417
4NAC Breda158432922+728

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda

  • 28 April 2024NAC Breda 2–0 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
  • 4 December 2023Jong PSV U21 0–5 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
  • 6 March 2023Jong PSV U21 1–2 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
  • 6 January 2023NAC Breda 2–1 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
  • 25 February 2022NAC Breda 3–1 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
  • 22 November 2021Jong PSV U21 0–0 NAC BredaEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda

Jong PSV U21

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

NAC Breda

GoalsAssists

  • C. Brym90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

NAC Breda won 2–0 at Jong PSV U21. The model had leaned towards a win for Jong PSV U21 at 38% and given a win for NAC Breda 34%. The goals: Charles-Andreas Brym 75' for NAC Breda, Charles-Andreas Brym 82' for NAC Breda. Sent off: Madi Monamay (Jong PSV U21) 24'. On expected goals it finished 0.29–3.12.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Jong PSV U21 a 20.4% chance to finish in the top eight: 25.4% after a win, 18.2% after a draw, 15.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.3%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.

For NAC Breda the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 72.0% going in: 78.2% after a win, 71.1% after a draw, 67.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.2%, 6.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Jong PSV U21 v NAC Breda has moved

First published on 19 Oct at 30% / 29% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is Jong PSV U21's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Jong PSV U21 win38%▲ +8
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. NAC Breda win34%▼ −7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.