PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: PEC Zwolle 1-0 ADO Den Haag.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% PEC Zwolle, 26% draw, 36% ADO Den Haag — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
PEC Zwolle at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. SchendelaarG
- 3O. AertssenD
- 28S. GravesD
- 24N. ViergeverD
- 33D. van der HaarD
- 30R. ThomasM
- 37Gilles van der WalM
- 8T. SommerM
- 7Y. NamliF
- 17S. van HooijdonkF
- 11D. MbayoF
- 4T. VelthuisD
- 9E. SørensenF
- 20G. ReizigerM
- 25T. OostingM
- 10K. KostonsF
- 16T. de GraaffG
- 22I. CissokoF
- 6Jan BürgerD
- 34N. FichtingerM
- 1K. NikiémaG
- 5J. Jensen-AbbewD
- 3P. MulderD
- 4M. WaemD
- 15M. HokkeD
- 25J. KiloM
- 11E. RottierM
- 33M. ŠínM
- 17J. HawkinsF
- 46Y. EduardoF
- 27N. ThomasF
- 9J. BalF
- 16Finn de BruinM
- 77D. BárányF
- 10Illaijh de RuijterD
- 14M. JiménezM
- 2O. RaterinkD
- 18S. SyllaD
- 23N. ThiedeG
- 7D. van MieghemF
Form going into PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag
PEC Zwolle
Eredivisie
- D1-1away to Utrecht24 October 2026
- W4-1GO Ahead Eagles18 October 2026
- L0-1Cambuur11 October 2026
ADO Den Haag
Eredivisie
- L2-3Heerenveen24 October 2026
- W2-1PSV Eindhoven17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Telstar11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: ADO Den Haag vs PEC Zwolle
ADO Den Haag and PEC Zwolle have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each.
The record
PEC Zwolle won the last one 1–0 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 |
| PEC Zwolle | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
EredivisiePEC Zwolle 1–0 ADO Den Haag - 17 Feb 2023
Eerste DivisieADO Den Haag 3–1 PEC Zwolle - 16 Sep 2022
Eerste DivisiePEC Zwolle 1–2 ADO Den Haag - 9 May 2021
EredivisiePEC Zwolle 0–1 ADO Den Haag - 23 Dec 2020
EredivisieADO Den Haag 0–2 PEC Zwolle - 20 Oct 2019
EredivisiePEC Zwolle 3–1 ADO Den Haag
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, ADO Den Haag's attack rates 22% above PEC Zwolle's, and ADO Den Haag concede 4% fewer than PEC Zwolle. That gives ADO Den Haag the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 0.72 | 1.22 |
| PEC Zwolle | 0.59 | 1.27 |
The result against the call
PEC Zwolle beat ADO Den Haag 1–0. The model had made a win for PEC Zwolle its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Dylan Mbayo 45' for PEC Zwolle. On expected goals it finished 1.48–0.52.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave PEC Zwolle a 50.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 42.6% after a win, 51.8% after a draw, 57.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.6%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.
For ADO Den Haag the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 36.3% going in: 28.7% after a win, 36.2% after a draw, 42.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.5%, 6.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 33% / 27% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 38% / 26% / 36%: the biggest move is PEC Zwolle's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- PEC Zwolle win38%▲ +5
- Draw26%▼ −1
- ADO Den Haag win36%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.