16 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

LEAG Energie Stadion, Cottbus
Referee: Felix Bickel, Germany
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Energie Cottbus 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Energie Cottbus, 23% draw, 43% 1. FC Nürnberg — fair odds of 2.94, 4.35 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Nürnberg at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Energie Cottbus5%Draw89%1. FC Nürnberg6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

33'
🔁Mohamed Alì Zomaout: William Bøving
34'
Adam Markhiev
Henry Rorig
45+1'
⚽Justin Butlerassist: Leonardo Bittencourt
56'
61'
Alexios Kalogeropoulos
🔁Leon Guwaraout: fousseny doumbia
65'
🔁Leonardo Bittencourtout: Dominik Pelivan
65'
65'
🔁Rayan Ghriebout: Rafael Lubach
66'
🔁Alexios Kalogeropoulosout: Styopa Mkrtchyan
Tolcay Cigerci
68'
79'
⚽Styopa Mkrtchyanassist: Eric Porstner
🔁Henry Rorigout: Christian Kinsombi
80'
🔁Justin Butlerout: Dmytro Bogdanov
80'
🔁King Samuel Manuout: Tim Campulka
82'
Christian Kinsombi
90+1'

Match stats — Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg

38%Possession62%
14Shots19
5On target5
2Corners8
1.91xG1.37

Goals against chances

Energie Cottbus1 from 1.91 xGless than the chances were worth
1. FC Nürnberg1 from 1.37 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Energie Cottbus 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. LotkaG
  • 3H. RorigD
  • 2K. ManuD
  • 21Luca ErleinD
  • 25L. GuwaraD
  • 32L. BittencourtM
  • 8Lukas MichelbrinkM
  • 10T. CiğerciM
  • 9L. CopadoM
  • 11M. HannemannM
  • 31J. ButlerF
Substitutes
  • 7C. KinsombiF
  • 13Dmytro BohdanovF
  • 4T. CampulkaD
  • 23Fousseny DoumbiaD
  • 6J. HofmannM
  • 16R. MaloneD
  • 5D. PelivanM
  • 29K. KratzschG
  • 19J. BoziarisM
Coach: C. Wollitz
1. FC Nürnberg 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. ReichertG
  • 32T. JanischD
  • 4A. KalogeropoulosD
  • 20F. OttoD
  • 41E. PorstnerD
  • 6A. MarhievM
  • 8J. FernandezM
  • 7R. GhriebM
  • 10J. JustvanM
  • 23M. ZomaM
  • 19P. ScobelF
Substitutes
  • 13Robin LisewskiG
  • 18Rafael LubachM
  • 21G. MasourasD
  • 5S. MkrtchyanD
  • 28Can Yaha MoustfaF
  • 9S. HaugenF
  • 14andrea ceresoliD
  • 11W. BøvingF
  • 35M. Kornwachs BarjuanM
Coach: M. Klose

Form going into Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg

Energie Cottbus

2. Bundesliga

  • L1-3away to SV Darmstadt 9810 October 2026

1. FC Nürnberg

2. Bundesliga

  • D4-4VfL Wolfsburg10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Energie Cottbus112541820-211
21. FC Nürnberg117312613+1324

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg

Energie Cottbus

GoalsAssists

  • T. Ciğerci52
  • J. Butler51

1. FC Nürnberg

GoalsAssists

  • M. Zoma70
  • P. Scobel61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for 1. FC Nürnberg at 43% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Justin Butler 56' for Energie Cottbus, Styopa Mkrtchyan 79' for 1. FC Nürnberg. On expected goals it finished 1.91–1.37.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Energie Cottbus a 13.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.4% after a win, 13.6% after a draw, 15.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 13.6%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.

For 1. FC Nürnberg the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 63.5% going in: 70.3% after a win, 61.0% after a draw, 58.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 61.0%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 35% / 26% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 34% / 23% / 43%: the biggest move is 1. FC Nürnberg's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Energie Cottbus win34%▼ −1
  2. Draw23%▼ −3
  3. 1. FC Nürnberg win43%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.