16 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Holstein-Stadion, Kiel
Referee: Jarno Wienefeld, Germany
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Holstein Kiel 0-0 Hertha BSC.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Holstein Kiel, 27% draw, 43% Hertha BSC — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hertha BSC at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Holstein Kiel3%Draw92%Hertha BSC5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'
Deyovaisio Zeefuik
Sebastian Schonlau
38'
🔁Sebastian Schonlauout: David Zec
50'
🔁Guillermo Balziout: Gyan de Regt
64'
🔁Till Wieseout: Ikem Ugoh
64'
David Zec
68'
69'
🔁Sebastian Gronningout: Jan Luca Schuler
69'
🔁Julian Eitschbergerout: Mads Valentin Pedersen
76'
🔁Jón Dagur Þórsteinssonout: Farid Alfa-Ruprecht
🔁Jonas Torrissen Therkelsenout: Giorgi Kvilitaia
82'
🔁Adrian Kapralikout: Mark Richter Montserrat
82'
89'
🔁Oluwaseun Adewumiout: Soufian gouram
90'
Paul Seguin

Match stats — Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC

43%Possession57%
6Shots15
3On target7
1Corners6
0.61xG1.59

Goals against chances

Holstein Kiel0 from 0.61 xGless than the chances were worth
Hertha BSC0 from 1.59 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Holstein Kiel 4-5-1
  • 1T. WeinerG
  • 32H. SekineD
  • 5N. MadsenD
  • 4S. SchonlauD
  • 40Leon ParduziD
  • 20A. KaprálikM
  • 8G. BalziM
  • 28J. MeffertM
  • 43T. WieseM
  • 10J. TherkelsenM
  • 19P. HarresF
Substitutes
  • 17F. AlidouF
  • 11G. de RegtF
  • 9G. KvilitaiaF
  • 13I. NekićD
  • 44Mark Richter MonserratF
  • 41Lio RothenhagenG
  • 47J. TolkinD
  • 27I. UgohM
  • 26D. ZecD
Coach: T. Walter
Hertha BSC 4-2-3-1
  • 35M. GersbeckG
  • 2J. EitschbergerD
  • 44L. GechterD
  • 27N. KolbeD
  • 42D. ZeefuikD
  • 30P. SeguinM
  • 8K. SessaM
  • 19O. AdewumiM
  • 23J. ÞorsteinssonM
  • 7J. BrekaloM
  • 17S. GrønningF
Substitutes
  • 22M. PedersenD
  • 18L. SchulerF
  • 47Selim TelibM
  • 28Jelani Isi NdiF
  • 41P. KlemensD
  • 13Konstantin HeideG
  • 33S. GouramM
  • 43T. GollerG
  • 20Farid Alfa-RuprechtF
Coach: S. Leitl

Form going into Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC

Holstein Kiel

2. Bundesliga

  • L0-1away to Eintracht Braunschweig9 October 2026

Hertha BSC

2. Bundesliga

  • W2-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Holstein Kiel111551114-38
1Hertha BSC111010259+1631

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC

  • 25 April 2026Hertha BSC 0–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
  • 29 November 2025Holstein Kiel 0–1 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
  • 1 March 2024Hertha Berlin 2–2 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
  • 24 September 2023Holstein Kiel 2–3 Hertha Berlin2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC

Holstein Kiel

GoalsAssists

  • P. Harres53

Hertha BSC

GoalsAssists

  • J. Brekalo55
  • O. Adewumi50
  • S. Grønning41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Hertha BSC at 43% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.61–1.59.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Holstein Kiel a 38.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 31.1% after a win, 39.0% after a draw, 41.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 39.0%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.

For Hertha BSC the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 38.0% going in: 42.1% after a win, 35.8% after a draw, 32.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 35.8%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Holstein Kiel v Hertha BSC has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 32% / 28% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 30% / 27% / 43%: the biggest move is Hertha BSC's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Holstein Kiel win30%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Hertha BSC win43%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.