Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Energie Cottbus 1-2 VfL Bochum.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Energie Cottbus, 26% draw, 28% VfL Bochum — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Energie Cottbus at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. LotkaG
- 3H. RorigD
- 2K. ManuD
- 21Luca ErleinD
- 25L. GuwaraD
- 32L. BittencourtM
- 8Lukas MichelbrinkM
- 10T. CiğerciM
- 9L. CopadoM
- 11M. HannemannM
- 31J. ButlerF
- 13Dmytro BohdanovF
- 4T. CampulkaD
- 23Fousseny DoumbiaD
- 6J. HofmannM
- 7C. KinsombiF
- 5D. PelivanM
- 42J. ZaydanD
- 29K. KratzschG
- 19J. BoziarisM
- 1T. HornG
- 2S. KlaiberD
- 15M. SteinwenderD
- 5K. MetsD
- 32M. WittekD
- 34T. MeyerM
- 24M. PannewigM
- 23K. MiyoshiM
- 17G. HoltmannM
- 10B. TazM
- 33P. HofmannF
- 4Y. KarademirD
- 29M. Ouro-TagbaF
- 28C. PatinoM
- 7C. RasmussenF
- 31L. SawasD
- 14J. SteuckersF
- 39L. IsbruchM
- 19D. HanslikF
- 16T. CasaliG
Form going into Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum
Energie Cottbus
2. Bundesliga
- D1-1away to 1. FC Heidenheim24 October 2026
- D1-11. FC Nürnberg16 October 2026
- L1-3away to SV Darmstadt 9810 October 2026
VfL Bochum
2. Bundesliga
- D1-1VfL Wolfsburg23 October 2026
- L0-2away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern17 October 2026
- L0-1Arminia Bielefeld11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Energie Cottbus | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum
- 13 April 2014VfL Bochum 2–1 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
- 1 November 2013Energie Cottbus 0–1 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 14 April 2013Energie Cottbus 0–2 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 4 November 2012VfL Bochum 2–2 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
- 20 April 2012Energie Cottbus 1–1 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 21 November 2011VfL Bochum 0–1 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Energie Cottbus and VfL Bochum
Energie Cottbus
GoalsAssists
- T. Ciğerci52
- J. Butler51
VfL Bochum
GoalsAssists
- P. Hofmann50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
VfL Bochum won 2–1 at Energie Cottbus. The model had leaned towards a win for Energie Cottbus at 46% and given a win for VfL Bochum 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Tolcay Cigerci (penalty) 21' for Energie Cottbus, Philipp Hofmann 70' for VfL Bochum, Christian Theodor Kjelder Rasmussen 88' for VfL Bochum. On expected goals it finished 1.41–1.32.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Energie Cottbus a 6.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 4.3% after a win, 6.9% after a draw, 8.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.4%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
For VfL Bochum the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 21.9% going in: 15.3% after a win, 20.8% after a draw, 24.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.3%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Energie Cottbus v VfL Bochum has moved
First published on 16 Oct at 44% / 25% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 26% / 28%: the biggest move is VfL Bochum's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Energie Cottbus win46%▲ +2
- Draw26%▲ +1
- VfL Bochum win28%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.