25 October 2026, 13:15 UTC

Nassaji Mazandaran vs Fajr Sepasi Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

Vatani Stadium
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Nassaji Mazandaran 2-2 Fajr Sepasi.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Nassaji Mazandaran, 28% draw, 28% Fajr Sepasi — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nassaji Mazandaran at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽A. Jafarpour (OG)
20'
🔁S. Fadakarout: A. Moredi
🔁P. Rezazadehout: K. Ezhdehakosh
33'
F. Najafi
35'
⚽H. Rabizadeh (pen)
45+2'
K. Ezhdehakosh
45+7'
🔁F. Najafiout: A. Nasiri
46'
🔁A. Mohammadnejadout: J. Aghaeipour
46'
53'
M. Sharifi
⚽J. Aghaeipourassist: A. Koohi
63'
67'
🔁Y. Rostamiout: F. Arab
67'
🔁A. Vosoughifardout: A. Helichi
A. Arasteh
74'
83'
🔁M. Rigiout: M. Bahraminejad
83'
🔁H. Shahabiout: H. Nokhodkar
🔁A. Sadeghiout: A. Sheikhirad
85'
87'
⚽M. Moradiassist: E. Pahlevan
🔁A. Aarabiout: F. Emamali
90+1'

Line-ups

Nassaji Mazandaran
  • 1A. Jafarpour
  • 2A. Koohi
  • 81I. Akbari
  • 3H. Rabizadeh
  • 17A. Arasteh
  • 10A. Mohammadnejad
  • 6A. Sarabadani
  • 14P. Rezazadeh
  • 20A. Aarabi
  • 8A. Sadeghi
  • 77F. Najafi
Substitutes
  • 99K. Ezhdehakosh
  • 9J. Aghaeipour
  • 11A. Sheikhirad
  • 19A. Mahdavikia
  • 22O. Amiri
  • O. Fahmi Maleki
  • 23S. Bousabih
  • 24A. Nasiri
  • 72M. Hosseinzadehfard
Fajr Sepasi
  • 1A. Gholamzadeh
  • 7E. Pahlevan
  • 77S. Fadakar
  • 5M. Nasiri
  • 2A. Vosoughifard
  • 11M. Moradi
  • 17H. Shahabi
  • 6M. Rigi
  • 12S. Tavakoli
  • 10Y. Rostami
  • 9M. Sharifi
Substitutes
  • 3A. Helichi
  • 15D. Jahanbakhsh
  • 16M. Bahraminejad
  • 18M. Rezaei
  • 20S. Norouzi
  • 29A. Moredi
  • 70H. Nokhodkar
  • 76A. Shabani
  • 80E. Falamarzi

Form going into Nassaji Mazandaran vs Fajr Sepasi

Nassaji Mazandaran

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • D0-0away to Foolad FC18 October 2026
  • D1-1ZOB Ahan8 October 2026

Fajr Sepasi

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • W2-0Paykan19 October 2026
  • W2-1Aluminium Arak13 October 2026
  • L1-6away to Sepahan FC8 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Nassaji Mazandaran12264811-312
7Fajr Sepasi114521213-117

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nassaji Mazandaran vs Fajr Sepasi

  • 11 January 2023Nassaji Mazandaran 2–1 Fajr SepasiHazfi Cup
  • 24 January 2022Fajr Sepasi 1–1 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 19 October 2021Nassaji Mazandaran 1–0 Fajr SepasiPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 23 April 2018Nassaji Mazandaran 2–0 Fajr SepasiAzadegan League
  • 3 December 2017Fajr Sepasi 0–0 Nassaji MazandaranAzadegan League
  • 6 February 2017Nassaji Mazandaran 0–1 Fajr SepasiAzadegan League

The result against the call

Nassaji Mazandaran and Fajr Sepasi drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Nassaji Mazandaran at 44% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Jafarpour (own goal) 11' for Fajr Sepasi, H. Rabizadeh (penalty) 45+2' for Nassaji Mazandaran, J. Aghaeipour 63' for Nassaji Mazandaran, M. Moradi 87' for Fajr Sepasi. Sent off: M. Sharifi (Fajr Sepasi) 53'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nassaji Mazandaran a 7.9% chance to finish in the bottom four: 0.0% after a win, 7.7% after a draw, 19.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 7.7%.

Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Nassaji Mazandaran v Fajr Sepasi has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is Nassaji Mazandaran's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Nassaji Mazandaran win44%▼ −3
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Fajr Sepasi win28%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.