Estudiantes La Plata vs Instituto Cordoba Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Estudiantes La Plata 3-3 Instituto Cordoba.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Estudiantes La Plata, 31% draw, 33% Instituto Cordoba — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Estudiantes La Plata at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estudiantes La Plata vs Instituto Cordoba
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16F. MusleraG
- 40E. MancusoD
- 4S. NúñezD
- 5M. RojoD
- 13G. BenedettiD
- 21Lucas Ezequiel PioviM
- 22A. CastroM
- 10T. PalaciosM
- 32J. CorreaM
- 17J. BurgosM
- 9G. CarrilloF
- 27L. AlarioF
- 18E. CetréF
- 26R. Funes MoriD
- 19A. GaichF
- 31B. GallegoM
- 1F. IacovichG
- 52B. KociubinskiM
- 20E. MezaD
- 34M. MonsalveM
- 29M. LedesmaG
- 30J. GalvánD
- 26L. MosevichD
- 6F. AlarcónD
- 44G. CeratoM
- 55G. AbregúM
- 15M. GallardoM
- 3D. SosaM
- 21J. LázaroF
- 9F. SuárezF
- 10A. LunaF
- 8J. AcevedoM
- 14W. VieraM
- 32A. BravoD
- 20J. CórdobaM
- 2H. De La FuenteD
- 11M. FonsecaF
- 7N. GuerraF
- 22A. MassaccesiD
- 23J. MeliD
Form going into Estudiantes La Plata vs Instituto Cordoba
Estudiantes La Plata
Liga Profesional Argentina
- L1-3away to Union Santa Fe26 October 2026
- L1-2San Lorenzo18 October 2026
- D2-2away to Central Cordoba de Santiago10 October 2026
Instituto Cordoba
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W1-0Deportivo Riestra27 October 2026
- W1-0away to Defensa Y Justicia16 October 2026
- D2-2Boca Juniors9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 16 |
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 15 | +11 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estudiantes La Plata vs Instituto Cordoba
- 18 April 2026Instituto Cordoba 0–1 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 October 2024Estudiantes La Plata 3–2 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 29 May 2023Instituto Cordoba 0–0 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
The result against the call
Estudiantes La Plata and Instituto Cordoba drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Estudiantes La Plata at 36% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Facundo Ezquel Suarez 3' for Instituto Cordoba, Leonel Mosevich 48' for Instituto Cordoba, Jhon Córdoba 52' for Instituto Cordoba, Guido Carrillo 58' for Estudiantes La Plata, Tiago Palacios 65' for Estudiantes La Plata, Fabricio Pérez 86' for Estudiantes La Plata. Sent off: Santiago Núñez (Estudiantes La Plata) 50'. On expected goals it finished 2.05–1.16.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Estudiantes La Plata these chances to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 9.6% after a draw, 31.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 9.6%.
For Instituto Cordoba the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A, 87.6% going in: 100.0% after a win, 89.2% after a draw, 76.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 89.2%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Estudiantes La Plata v Instituto Cordoba has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 36% / 31% / 33%: the biggest move is Estudiantes La Plata's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Estudiantes La Plata win36%▼ −4
- Draw31%=
- Instituto Cordoba win33%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.