30 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

Rapperswil vs Stade Nyonnais Challenge League prediction & result

Rapperswil-Jona
Referee: H. Qovanaj
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Rapperswil 1-4 Stade Nyonnais.

Before kick-off the model made it 62% Rapperswil, 22% draw, 16% Stade Nyonnais — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rapperswil at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rapperswil0%Draw1%Stade Nyonnais99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

J. Ambassa
14'
45'
🔁R. Correiaout: R. Philippin
49'
F. Hysenaj
52'
⚽M. Regilloassist: E. Akichi
⚽N. Mupembaassist: A. Charveys
54'
A. Omerovic
56'
57'
⚽M. Regillo (pen)
🔁A. Bakayokoout: R. Bobadilla
65'
🔁J. Ambassaout: R. Pousa
65'
🔁A. Charveysout: A. Durrer
65'
72'
🔁R. Londjaout: G. Figueiredo
72'
🔁L. Ribeiroout: F. Ahuissou
79'
🔁F. Hysenajout: M. Ishuayed
79'
🔁M. Miguelout: F. Lentini
🔁S. Diarrassoubaout: D. Muzzi
85'
🔁Y. Ryterout: E. Rossier
85'
B. Morgado
86'
87'
⚽M. Ishuayed
90'
⚽M. Ishuayed
90+2'
G. Figueiredo

Line-ups

Rapperswil
Coach: Selcuk Sasivari
Stade Nyonnais
Coach: Aurelien Mioch

Form going into Rapperswil vs Stade Nyonnais

Rapperswil

Challenge League

  • D2-2away to FC WIL 190023 October 2026
  • L0-3Stade Lausanne-Ouchy9 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Neuchatel Xamax FC18 September 2026

Stade Nyonnais

Challenge League

  • L0-4away to FC Winterthur23 October 2026
  • W2-1FC Aarau9 October 2026
  • L0-5away to FC WIL 190018 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Challenge League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Rapperswil133281826-811
10Stade Nyonnais132291334-218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rapperswil vs Stade Nyonnais

  • 31 July 2026Stade Nyonnais 1–2 RapperswilChallenge League
  • 15 May 2026Rapperswil 2–1 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
  • 20 March 2026Stade Nyonnais 2–1 RapperswilChallenge League
  • 17 October 2025Rapperswil 1–0 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
  • 1 August 2025Stade Nyonnais 1–0 RapperswilChallenge League
  • 19 April 2023Rapperswil 2–4 Stade Nyonnais1. Liga Promotion

The result against the call

Stade Nyonnais won 4–1 at Rapperswil. The model had leaned towards a win for Rapperswil at 62% and given a win for Stade Nyonnais 16%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: M. Regillo 52' for Stade Nyonnais, N. Mupemba 54' for Rapperswil, M. Regillo (penalty) 57' for Stade Nyonnais, M. Ishuayed 87' for Stade Nyonnais, M. Ishuayed 90' for Stade Nyonnais.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rapperswil a 1.4% chance to finish in the bottom one: under 1% after a win, 1.3% after a draw, 5.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.5%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.

For Stade Nyonnais the question was the chance to finish in the bottom one, 94.6% going in: 85.3% after a win, 94.2% after a draw, 96.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 85.3%, 9.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Challenge League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rapperswil v Stade Nyonnais has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 60% / 23% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 62% / 22% / 16%: the biggest move is Rapperswil's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Rapperswil win62%▲ +2
  2. Draw22%▼ −1
  3. Stade Nyonnais win16%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.