30 October 2026, 19:15 UTC

Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau Challenge League prediction & result

Referee: L. Cibelli
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Neuchatel Xamax FC 1-3 FC Aarau.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Neuchatel Xamax FC, 27% draw, 31% FC Aarau — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Neuchatel Xamax FC at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Neuchatel Xamax FC5%Draw91%FC Aarau4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
R. Guzzo
33'
A. Bizzarri
⚽E. Abedini (pen)
40'
🔁D. Carracoout: A. Bourezak
46'
56'
🔁A. Bizzarriout: S. Muller
56'
🔁R. Guzzoout: A. Beka Beka
🔁P. Ambroseout: J. Unjanque
60'
🔁Y. Peverelliout: J. Fontana
61'
🔁E. Abediniout: A. Azemi
68'
75'
⚽D. Acquah
77'
🔁K. Ndauout: D. Coric
77'
🔁B. Senyurtout: M. Guindo
J. Unjanque
77'
🔁N. Gjorgjevout: V. Nvendo
83'
86'
🔁H. Koideout: L. Obexer
90+2'
⚽D. Afriyie
90+3'
⚽A. Beka Bekaassist: M. Guindo

Line-ups

Neuchatel Xamax FC
Coach: Bruno Berner
FC Aarau
Coach: Brunello Iacopetta

Form going into Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau

Neuchatel Xamax FC

Challenge League

  • D0-0away to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy23 October 2026
  • W3-0FC Winterthur9 October 2026
  • L0-3Rapperswil18 September 2026

FC Aarau

Challenge League

  • L1-2Étoile Carouge24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Stade Nyonnais9 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Winterthur18 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Challenge League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Neuchatel Xamax FC135261620-417
6FC Aarau134361924-515

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau

  • 28 August 2026FC Aarau 2–1 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
  • 1 May 2026Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–3 FC AarauChallenge League
  • 21 March 2026FC Aarau 1–0 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
  • 28 November 2025Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–2 FC AarauChallenge League
  • 9 August 2025FC Aarau 2–0 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
  • 11 April 2025Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–1 FC AarauChallenge League

The result against the call

FC Aarau won 3–1 at Neuchatel Xamax FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Neuchatel Xamax FC at 42% and given a win for FC Aarau 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: E. Abedini (penalty) 40' for Neuchatel Xamax FC, D. Acquah 75' for FC Aarau, D. Afriyie 90+2' for FC Aarau, A. Beka Beka 90+3' for FC Aarau.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Neuchatel Xamax FC a 46.8% chance to finish in the top four: 60.3% after a win, 42.4% after a draw, 30.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.6%, 16.2 points lower than before the match.

For FC Aarau the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 7.8% going in: 14.7% after a win, 6.0% after a draw, 2.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.7%, 6.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Challenge League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Neuchatel Xamax FC v FC Aarau has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 30% / 28% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is Neuchatel Xamax FC's chance of winning, up 12 points.

  1. Neuchatel Xamax FC win42%▲ +12
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. FC Aarau win31%▼ −11

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.