30 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport Challenge League prediction & result

Stade Olympique de la Pontaise, Lausanne
Referee: M. Londino
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3-2 Yverdon Sport.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, 30% draw, 25% Yverdon Sport — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy98%Draw2%Yverdon Sport0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽S. Demhasaj
38'
⚽J. Okita
45'
V. Tasar
T. Bouchlarhem
45'
J. A. Tur
45+1'
46'
🔁J. Okitaout: L. Bittarelli
🔁J. A. Turout: J. Atangana
46'
⚽J. Atanganaassist: M. Sartoretti
56'
⚽T. Bouchlarhemassist: M. Sartoretti
59'
61'
🔁B. Tomaout: O. Doumbia
D. Moussadek
63'
66'
🔁S. Demhasajout: J. Augustin
66'
🔁E. Pascheout: J. Mayorga
🔁I. Kalogaout: N. Emeran
67'
🔁R. Dantas Fernandesout: R. Freitas
67'
70'
J. Gnakpa
72'
O. Doumbia
⚽T. Bouchlarhem
73'
🔁B. Conusout: N. Lusuena
73'
74'
🔁M. Okukaout: A. Chappuis
N. Lusuena
84'
🔁V. Trittenout: J. Nkama
86'

Line-ups

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Coach: Dalibor Stevanovic
Yverdon Sport
Coach: Guillermo Abascal

Form going into Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Challenge League

  • D0-0Neuchatel Xamax FC23 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Rapperswil9 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Yverdon Sport20 September 2026

Yverdon Sport

Challenge League

  • W5-2SC Kriens25 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Étoile Carouge9 October 2026
  • D0-0Stade Lausanne-Ouchy20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Challenge League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Stade Lausanne-Ouchy13940286+2231
3Yverdon Sport136522314+923

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport

  • 20 September 2026Yverdon Sport 0–0 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
  • 26 April 2026Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0–3 Yverdon SportChallenge League
  • 8 March 2026Yverdon Sport 0–2 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
  • 13 December 2025Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 4–0 Yverdon SportChallenge League
  • 3 August 2025Yverdon Sport 3–2 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League

The result against the call

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy beat Yverdon Sport 3–2. The model had made a win for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: S. Demhasaj 1' for Yverdon Sport, J. Okita 38' for Yverdon Sport, J. Atangana 56' for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, T. Bouchlarhem 59' for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, T. Bouchlarhem 73' for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. Sent off: V. Tasar (Yverdon Sport) 45'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 69.3% chance to win the league: 83.4% after a win, 67.5% after a draw, 45.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 83.4%, 14.1 points higher than before the match.

For Yverdon Sport the question was the chance to win the league, 19.9% going in: 41.4% after a win, 19.3% after a draw, 7.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.7%, 12.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Challenge League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Yverdon Sport has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 47% / 29% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 45% / 30% / 25%: the biggest move is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win45%▼ −2
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Yverdon Sport win25%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.