Rochdale vs Accrington Stanley League Two prediction & result
Final score: Rochdale 0-5 Accrington Stanley.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Rochdale, 27% draw, 33% Accrington Stanley — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Rochdale at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rochdale vs Accrington Stanley
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 20Sam William John WallerG
- 26S. SherringD
- 44A. FlintD
- 3Kaiden WilsonD
- 2C. TaskerD
- 8H. GilmourM
- 14E. FrancisM
- 7C. HayesM
- 17B. AdeekoM
- 45G. MiddletonM
- 39D. BrownF
- 33S. BeckwithD
- 19L. HannantM
- 40I. HendersonF
- 35J. PatersonF
- 11Z. Silcott-DuberryF
- 12J. SpavenG
- 56Reece LeonardM
- 1L. MouldenG
- 2D. LoveD
- 17D. MatthewsD
- 22J. AndersonD
- 38C. O'BrienM
- 14Stefan MolsM
- 16Aidan BorlandM
- 33D. TutondaM
- 39J. WoodsM
- 23T. WaltonF
- 30C. WarrenF
- 3Oliver SmithD
- 20C. BrownF
- 8C. GrantM
- 10Alex HendersonM
- 4T. MooreD
- 5F. RawsonD
- 21J. RogersonG
Form going into Rochdale vs Accrington Stanley
Rochdale
League Two
- D2-2Grimsby20 October 2026
- L2-3away to Crewe17 October 2026
Accrington Stanley
League Two
- D1-1away to York20 October 2026
- W3-1Gillingham17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rochdale | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 15 |
| 13 | Accrington Stanley | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rochdale vs Accrington Stanley
- 30 August 2022Accrington Stanley 3–3 RochdaleEFL Trophy
- 17 April 2021Rochdale 3–1 Accrington StanleyLeague One
- 10 October 2020Accrington Stanley 2–1 RochdaleLeague One
- 1 January 2020Accrington Stanley 1–2 RochdaleLeague One
- 12 October 2019Rochdale 2–1 Accrington StanleyLeague One
- 9 April 2019Accrington Stanley 0–1 RochdaleLeague One
Leading scorers: Rochdale and Accrington Stanley
Rochdale
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Accrington Stanley
GoalsAssists
- J. Woods71
- C. Caton50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Accrington Stanley won 5–0 at Rochdale. The model had leaned towards a win for Rochdale at 40% and given a win for Accrington Stanley 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Josh Woods 14' for Accrington Stanley, Charlie Warren 38' for Accrington Stanley, Tyler Walton 45+1' for Accrington Stanley, Tyler Walton 51' for Accrington Stanley, Alex Henderson 66' for Accrington Stanley. On expected goals it finished 0.39–1.89.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rochdale a 8.4% chance to finish in the bottom two: 6.1% after a win, 8.2% after a draw, 10.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.2%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Rochdale v Accrington Stanley has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 40% / 27% / 33%: the biggest move is Accrington Stanley's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Rochdale win40%▼ −2
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Accrington Stanley win33%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.