24 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl 3. Liga prediction & result

Sportpark Hohenberg, Cologne
Referee: Niclas Rose
Full time3 – 1

Final score: FC Viktoria Köln 3-1 Verl.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% FC Viktoria Köln, 25% draw, 25% Verl — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Viktoria Köln at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Viktoria Köln99%Draw1%Verl0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
🔁Joshua Ezeout: Fabian Wessig
🔁Yannick Aime Tonyeout: Kilian Jakob
22'
42'
Almin Mesanovic
45+3'
⚽Fabian Wessigassist: Andre Leipold
🔁Lucas Wolfout: Niklas Jahn
45'
58'
Nick Seidel
67'
🔁M. Kaubeout: Mika Clausen
⚽David Ottoassist: Meiko Sponsel
71'
82'
🔁Niko Kijewskiout: Janne Berner
83'
🔁Almin Mesanovicout: Alem Japaur
🔁David Ottoout: Jakob Sachse
83'
⚽Taylan Dumanassist: Pascal Fallmann
86'
⚽Kilian Jakobassist: Niklas Horst Castelle
89'
Kilian Jakob
90+1'
Jakob Sachse
90+2'
🔁Taylan Dumanout: Jason Amann
90+4'
🔁Pascal Fallmannout: Verthomy Schilo Boboy
90+4'

Match stats — FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl

62%Possession38%
15Shots5
7On target2
6Corners2

Line-ups

FC Viktoria Köln 3-4-3
  • 1A. SchulzG
  • 19M. SponselD
  • 6T. EisenhuthD
  • 18Tim KlossD
  • 28P. FallmannM
  • 8T. DumanM
  • 20Niklas SwiderM
  • 7Y. TonyeM
  • 44N. CastelleF
  • 10D. OttoF
  • 21L. WolfF
Substitutes
  • 16N. JahnM
  • 11E. GueyeM
  • 24J. AmannM
  • 26K. JakobD
  • 37N. Le BretF
  • 17M. PledlM
  • 9J. SachseF
  • 22V. BoboyD
  • 12D. WyciokG
Coach: M. Wilhelm
Verl 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. SchlieckG
  • 14P. LehmannD
  • 22N. KönigD
  • 5Nick SeidelD
  • 19N. KijewskiD
  • 8D. WaidnerM
  • 6J. EzeM
  • 11M. KaubeM
  • 30A. MešanovićM
  • 20A. LeipoldM
  • 25T. HeikeF
Substitutes
  • 2Raphael AraoyeD
  • 34Janne BernerD
  • 21M. ClausenM
  • 9A. JapaurF
  • 17Y. OttoM
  • 32F. PekruhlG
  • 23K. RabihićF
  • 18F. WessigM
  • 10B. YalcinkayaM
Coach: Orest Shala

Form going into FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl

FC Viktoria Köln

3. Liga

  • D1-1away to MSV Duisburg18 October 2026
  • D2-2SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach14 October 2026

Verl

3. Liga

  • L1-2away to Hoffenheim II18 October 2026
  • D2-2SSV Jahn Regensburg14 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1FC Viktoria Köln139223618+1829
17Verl133371727-1012

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl

  • 18 April 2026Verl 2–0 FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga
  • 22 November 2025FC Viktoria Köln 1–5 Verl3. Liga
  • 22 February 2025Verl 1–1 FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga
  • 7 January 2025FC Viktoria Köln 1–3 VerlFriendlies Clubs
  • 22 September 2024FC Viktoria Köln 2–1 Verl3. Liga

Leading scorers: FC Viktoria Köln and Verl

FC Viktoria Köln

GoalsAssists

  • D. Otto55
  • N. Castelle52

Verl

No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Viktoria Köln beat Verl 3–1. The model had made a win for FC Viktoria Köln its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Fabian Wessig 45+3' for Verl, David Otto 71' for FC Viktoria Köln, Taylan Duman 86' for FC Viktoria Köln, Kilian Jakob 89' for FC Viktoria Köln.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Viktoria Köln a 60.9% chance to finish in the top three: 66.0% after a win, 56.4% after a draw, 53.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.0%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.

For Verl the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 7.9% going in: 11.1% after a win, 7.7% after a draw, 6.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.1%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Viktoria Köln v Verl has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 50% / 25% / 25%: the biggest move is FC Viktoria Köln's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. FC Viktoria Köln win50%▲ +4
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Verl win25%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.