19 October 2026, 13:15 UTC

Fajr Sepasi vs Paykan Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

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Final score: Fajr Sepasi 2-0 Paykan.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Fajr Sepasi, 28% draw, 31% Paykan — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fajr Sepasi at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fajr Sepasi99%Draw1%Paykan0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Fadakarassist: H. Shahabi
41'
E. Pahlevan
44'
46'
🔁S. Mohebiout: F. Bagheri
52'
A. Gholami
🔁S. Fadakarout: F. Arab
63'
🔁M. Sharifiout: A. Moredi
63'
64'
🔁E. Jamshidiout: J. Asadi
64'
🔁M. Najafiout: M. Sayyar
M. Nasiri
71'
73'
R. Shekari
⚽Y. Rostami
77'
🔁Y. Rostamiout: A. Helichi
82'
85'
F. Amiri
🔁A. Vosoughifardout: M. Faramarzi
87'

Line-ups

Fajr Sepasi
  • 1A. Gholamzadeh
  • 7E. Pahlevan
  • 77S. Fadakar
  • 5M. Nasiri
  • 2A. Vosoughifard
  • 11M. Moradi
  • 6M. Rigi
  • 17H. Shahabi
  • 12S. Tavakoli
  • 9M. Sharifi
  • 10Y. Rostami
Substitutes
  • 3A. Helichi
  • 15D. Jahanbakhsh
  • 16M. Bahraminejad
  • 18M. Rezaei
  • 27M. Faramarzi
  • 29A. Moredi
  • 70H. Nokhodkar
  • 76A. Shabani
  • 80E. Falamarzi
Paykan
  • 1H. Pourhamidi
  • 18A. Madadizadeh
  • 5M. Bagheri
  • 6S. Mohebi
  • 2A. Gholami
  • 8M. Najafi
  • 10R. Shekari
  • 66A. Dehghan
  • 11F. Amiri
  • 77E. Jamshidi
  • 72H. Shoushtari
Substitutes
  • 12A. Shojaei
  • 13A. Abbasi
  • 14F. Bagheri
  • 15M. Sayyar
  • 29M. Mashayekh
  • 47A. Radin
  • 55A. Fathi
  • 61J. Asadi
  • 70I. Karami

Form going into Fajr Sepasi vs Paykan

Fajr Sepasi

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • W2-1Aluminium Arak13 October 2026
  • L1-6away to Sepahan FC8 October 2026

Paykan

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • D1-1Shams Azar Qazvin10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Fajr Sepasi114521213-117
11Paykan123541112-114

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fajr Sepasi vs Paykan

  • 1 November 2025Paykan 2–2 Fajr SepasiPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 25 February 2025Paykan 1–1 Fajr SepasiAzadegan League
  • 9 October 2024Fajr Sepasi 0–2 PaykanAzadegan League
  • 28 February 2022Fajr Sepasi 1–1 PaykanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 19 November 2021Paykan 0–1 Fajr SepasiPersian Gulf Pro League

The result against the call

Fajr Sepasi beat Paykan 2–0. The model had made a win for Fajr Sepasi its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: S. Fadakar 41' for Fajr Sepasi, Y. Rostami 77' for Fajr Sepasi.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fajr Sepasi a 11.9% chance to finish in the bottom four: under 1% after a win, 9.3% after a draw, 28.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 11.8 points lower than before the match.

For Paykan the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 5.7% going in: under 1% after a win, 4.4% after a draw, 9.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.6%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Fajr Sepasi v Paykan has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Paykan's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Fajr Sepasi win41%=
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Paykan win31%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.