17 October 2026, 23:00 UTC

FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso Primera División prediction & result

Arequipa
Referee: Kevin Ortega
Full time4 – 2

Final score: FBC Melgar 4-2 Deportivo Garcilaso.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% FBC Melgar, 30% draw, 29% Deportivo Garcilaso — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FBC Melgar at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FBC Melgar99%Draw1%Deportivo Garcilaso0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
Facundo Castelli
9'
⚽Facundo Castelliassist: Pablo Labrin
⚽Nicolas Quagliataassist: Matías Lazo
39'
57'
⚽Francisco Arancibiaassist: Pablo Labrin
60'
Carlos Ramos
⚽Johnny Vidales (pen)
62'
Nicolas Quagliata
64'
🔁Nelson Cabanillasout: Horacio Orzan
68'
71'
🔁Facundo Castelliout: Fernando Pacheco
⚽Bernardo Cuesta
73'
🔁Johnny Vidalesout: Lautaro Guzmán
74'
⚽Cristian Bordacaharassist: Horacio Orzan
76'
🔁Cristian Bordacaharout: Franco Zanelatto
81'
🔁Kevin Mindaout: Jesús Alcantar
82'
83'
🔁Carlos Ramosout: Claudio Torrejón
83'
🔁Pablo Labrinout: Adrian Ascues
83'
🔁Beto Da Silvaout: Christopher Olivares
88'
🔁Xavi Moreno Laymeout: José Anthony Rosell
Walter Tandazo
90+5'

Match stats — FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso

64%Possession36%
22Shots15
10On target4
6Corners6
2.89xG0.78

Goals against chances

FBC Melgar4 from 2.89 xGmore than the chances were worth
Deportivo Garcilaso2 from 0.78 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1
  • 21J. CabezudoG
  • 33M. LazoD
  • 23J. EscobarD
  • 3L. GonzálezD
  • 27N. CabanillasD
  • 25K. MindaM
  • 24W. TandazoM
  • 7C. BordacaharM
  • 10N. QuagliataM
  • 11J. VidalesM
  • 9B. CuestaF
Substitutes
  • 90J. AlcántarD
  • 12C. CácedaG
  • 80J. D´ArrigoM
  • 5A. DeneumostierD
  • 8L. GuzmánF
  • 66H. OrzánM
  • 26M. PortilloM
  • 77F. ZanelattoF
  • 45Matias ZegarraD
Coach: M. Rondelli
Deportivo Garcilaso 4-1-4-1
  • 1P. ZubczukG
  • 55E. CanalesD
  • 2A. SalazarD
  • 19A. GómezD
  • 23X. MorenoD
  • 8A. GonzálezM
  • 11F. ArancibiaM
  • 10P. LabrinM
  • 18C. RamosM
  • 30L. da SilvaM
  • 9F. CastelliF
Substitutes
  • 7L. RíosF
  • 20A. RosellD
  • 17S. RamírezF
  • 88F. PachecoF
  • 24C. OlivaresF
  • 35J. MendozaM
  • 31J. BarbieriG
  • 27A. AscuesM
  • 14C. TorrejónM
Coach: Lisandro Greppo

Form going into FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso

FBC Melgar

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Universitario11 October 2026

Deportivo Garcilaso

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Sport Huancayo10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3FBC Melgar3316985638+1857
4Deportivo Garcilaso33167105035+1555

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso

  • 28 April 2026Deportivo Garcilaso 1–0 FBC MelgarPrimera División
  • 19 September 2025Deportivo Garcilaso 1–1 FBC MelgarPrimera División
  • 18 April 2025FBC Melgar 1–2 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
  • 3 November 2024FBC Melgar 1–1 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División

Leading scorers: FBC Melgar and Deportivo Garcilaso

FBC Melgar

GoalsAssists

  • B. Cuesta156
  • J. Vidales141

Deportivo Garcilaso

GoalsAssists

  • L. da Silva114
  • C. Olivares102

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FBC Melgar beat Deportivo Garcilaso 4–2. The model had made a win for FBC Melgar its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Facundo Castelli 9' for Deportivo Garcilaso, Nicolas Quagliata 39' for FBC Melgar, Francisco Arancibia 57' for Deportivo Garcilaso, Johnny Vidales (penalty) 62' for FBC Melgar, Bernardo Cuesta 73' for FBC Melgar, Cristian Bordacahar 76' for FBC Melgar. On expected goals it finished 2.89–0.78.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FBC Melgar a 67.0% chance to finish in the top four: 82.6% after a win, 63.5% after a draw, 48.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 82.6%, 15.6 points higher than before the match.

For Deportivo Garcilaso the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 76.2% going in: 90.9% after a win, 78.2% after a draw, 66.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.0%, 10.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FBC Melgar v Deportivo Garcilaso has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 38% / 31% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 30% / 29%: the biggest move is FBC Melgar's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. FBC Melgar win41%▲ +3
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. Deportivo Garcilaso win29%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.