17 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica HNL prediction & result

Opus Arena, Osijek
Referee: Ante Culina
Full time1 – 1

Final score: NK Osijek 1-1 HNK Gorica.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% NK Osijek, 30% draw, 24% HNK Gorica — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

NK Osijek at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Osijek5%Draw93%HNK Gorica2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
⚽Jakov Pranjićassist: Domagoj Pavičić
🔁Simun Mikolcicout: Ivan Dolček
29'
Izak Ježić
31'
Armando León
34'
35'
frigan juraj
🔁Álejandro Canteroout: Admir ljatifi
45'
🔁Izak Ježićout: Marcel Heister
45'
60'
Goncalo Costa
🔁Luka Tunjicout: Ivan Barić
66'
68'
🔁frigan jurajout: Ognjen Bakic
68'
🔁Jakov Pranjićout: Stefan Perić
⚽Armando Leónassist: Admir ljatifi
68'
73'
•Ognjen Bakic
75'
Mario Carević
🔁Jay Kruiverout: Luka Posavec
76'
80'
🔁Bruno Bogojevićout: ivan cvijanovic
86'
🔁Domagoj Pavičićout: Kevin Custovic
90+3'
Filip Braut

Match stats — NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica

59%Possession41%
28Shots6
7On target3
11Corners6
1.74xG0.58

Goals against chances

NK Osijek1 from 1.74 xGless than the chances were worth
HNK Gorica1 from 0.58 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Osijek 4-2-3-1
  • 31M. MalenicaG
  • 22J. KruiverD
  • 98Izak JežićD
  • 49Ivano KolarikD
  • 47D. KalemD
  • 8Š. MikolčićM
  • 23L. VrbancicM
  • 39D. BukvićM
  • 11Luka TunjicM
  • 21CanteroM
  • 79A. LeónF
Substitutes
  • 67B. BaktiM
  • 12Jan AdžićG
  • 99BaleloF
  • 9I. BarićF
  • 1N. CurcijaG
  • 7I. DolčekF
  • 18Niko FarkašM
  • 2M. HeisterD
  • 26L. JelenićD
Coach: Fede Bessone
HNK Gorica 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. JosipovićG
  • 2F. BrautD
  • 32J. FilipovićD
  • 15D. StevanovićD
  • 5Gonçalo CostaD
  • 6T. LacouxM
  • 66Juraj FriganM
  • 25B. BogojevićM
  • 24D. PavičićM
  • 8J. PranjićM
  • 50A. ErcegF
Substitutes
  • 4K. ČustovićM
  • 20L. VrzićF
  • 30D. ŽarkovG
  • 45S. PerićD
  • 21H. MoustaphaD
  • 9P. MijićF
  • 71D. MatijašG
  • 18B. KardumF
  • 34I. CvijanovićD
Coach: M. Carević

Form going into NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica

NK Osijek

HNL

  • L1-3Istra 196110 October 2026

HNK Gorica

HNL

  • L1-2Rudes9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3NK Osijek136252218+420
10HNK Gorica131481025-157

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica

  • 1 August 2026HNK Gorica 0–2 NK OsijekHNL
  • 16 May 2026HNK Gorica 2–0 NK OsijekHNL
  • 14 March 2026NK Osijek 0–0 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 13 December 2025NK Osijek 1–1 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 28 September 2025HNK Gorica 0–1 NK OsijekHNL
  • 19 April 2025NK Osijek 0–1 HNK GoricaHNL

Leading scorers: NK Osijek and HNK Gorica

NK Osijek

GoalsAssists

  • A. León61
  • N. Omerović50

HNK Gorica

GoalsAssists

  • B. Bogojević40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

NK Osijek and HNK Gorica drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for NK Osijek at 46% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Jakov Pranjić 23' for HNK Gorica, Armando León 68' for NK Osijek. Sent off: Mario Carević (HNK Gorica) 75'. On expected goals it finished 1.74–0.58.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave NK Osijek a 31.8% chance to finish in the top four: 35.4% after a win, 29.0% after a draw, 25.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 29.0%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

For HNK Gorica the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 75.8% going in: 69.4% after a win, 75.3% after a draw, 79.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 75.3%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on NK Osijek v HNK Gorica has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 43% / 31% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 46% / 30% / 24%: the biggest move is NK Osijek's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. NK Osijek win46%▲ +3
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. HNK Gorica win24%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.