24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

FK Partizan vs Cukaricki Super Liga prediction & result

Stadion Partizana, Belgrade
Referee: S. Ostracanin
Full time0 – 2

Final score: FK Partizan 0-2 Cukaricki.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% FK Partizan, 23% draw, 24% Cukaricki — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FK Partizan at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FK Partizan0%Draw1%Cukaricki99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'
⚽Milan djokovicassist: Marko Docić
38'
🔁Marko Docićout: Uroš Nikolić
45+2'
⚽Milan djokovicassist: Uroš Nikolić
🔁Nikola Cumicout: Zubairu Ibrahim
45'
🔁Nemanja Trifunovicout: Iddrisu Baba
45'
🔁stefan petrovicout: Mateja Milovanovic
45'
🔁aleks zekovicout: Erik Kojzek
45'
49'
Uros·Miladinovic
54'
Nikola·Stankovic
62'
🔁karel mustmaaout: Mateja Prokopijevic
🔁Igor Miladinovicout: Milan aleksic
65'
68'
Mateja Prokopijevic
69'
🔁Uros·Miladinovicout: L Đorđević
69'
🔁Đorđe Jovanovićout: Remy Rees-Dottin
69'
🔁Lazar Markovićout: Aboubacar Cisse
Jeferson Marinho dos Santos
71'
79'
Sambou Sissoko

Match stats — FK Partizan vs Cukaricki

64%Possession36%
28Shots7
8On target4
12Corners2
2.29xG1.72

Goals against chances

FK Partizan0 from 2.29 xGless than the chances were worth
Cukaricki2 from 1.72 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FK Partizan 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. MiloševićG
  • 20Samson NwuluD
  • 21Sidney LimaD
  • 40N. SimićD
  • 33S. PetrovićD
  • 10I. MiladinovićM
  • 8A. ZekovicM
  • 27N. ČumićM
  • 99B. KostićM
  • 32N. TrifunovićM
  • 89JehF
Substitutes
  • 17M. AleksićF
  • 90Z. AlilovićM
  • 14I. BabaM
  • 24V. ĐurđevićD
  • 9E. KojzekF
  • 31M. KrunićG
  • 46M. LekicF
  • 44S. MilićD
  • 5M. MilovanovićD
Coach: Sasa Ilic
Cukaricki 4-2-3-1
  • 81V. ČarapićG
  • 24N. StankovićD
  • 23I. MaigaD
  • 26M. ĐokovićD
  • 3Z. ŠehovićD
  • 14S. SissokoM
  • 5M. DocićM
  • 8L. MarkovićM
  • 18Karel MustmaaM
  • 10U. MiladinovićM
  • 99Đ. JovanovićF
Substitutes
  • 20A. CisseM
  • 73N. MiletićD
  • 27A. NanqueF
  • 1Đ. NikolićG
  • 72U. NikolićM
  • 50M. PavkovF
  • 87Mateja ProkopijevićM
  • 51Remy Rees-DottinF
  • 4N. TomovićD
Coach: M. S. Jakšić

Form going into FK Partizan vs Cukaricki

FK Partizan

Super Liga

  • L0-1away to Železničar Pančevo18 October 2026

Cukaricki

Super Liga

  • W3-0Zemun17 October 2026
  • D2-2Macva10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serbia Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10FK Partizan155282526-117
7Cukaricki156452121022

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FK Partizan vs Cukaricki

  • 17 May 2026Cukaricki 0–0 FK PartizanSuper Liga
  • 5 April 2026FK Partizan 0–0 CukarickiSuper Liga
  • 1 November 2025Cukaricki 4–1 FK PartizanSuper Liga
  • 16 March 2025Cukaricki 0–1 FK PartizanSuper Liga
  • 26 October 2024FK Partizan 3–1 CukarickiSuper Liga
  • 17 May 2024Cukaricki 0–1 FK PartizanSuper Liga

Leading scorers: FK Partizan and Cukaricki

FK Partizan

GoalsAssists

  • E. Kojzek32

Cukaricki

GoalsAssists

  • U. Miladinović63

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cukaricki won 2–0 at FK Partizan. The model had leaned towards a win for FK Partizan at 53% and given a win for Cukaricki 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Milan djokovic 34' for Cukaricki, Milan djokovic 45+2' for Cukaricki. On expected goals it finished 2.29–1.72.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FK Partizan a 49.8% chance to finish in the top six: 56.7% after a win, 45.5% after a draw, 34.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.7%, 15.1 points lower than before the match.

For Cukaricki the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 24.0% going in: 37.5% after a win, 22.8% after a draw, 18.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.5%, 13.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FK Partizan v Cukaricki has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 55% / 22% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 53% / 23% / 24%: the biggest move is FK Partizan's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. FK Partizan win53%▼ −2
  2. Draw23%▲ +1
  3. Cukaricki win24%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.