FC WIL 1900 vs FC Winterthur Challenge League prediction & result
Final score: FC WIL 1900 0-3 FC Winterthur.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% FC WIL 1900, 28% draw, 43% FC Winterthur — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FC Winterthur at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into FC WIL 1900 vs FC Winterthur
FC WIL 1900
Challenge League
- D2-2Rapperswil23 October 2026
- D1-1away to SC Kriens9 October 2026
- W5-0Stade Nyonnais18 September 2026
FC Winterthur
Challenge League
- W4-0Stade Nyonnais23 October 2026
- L0-3away to Neuchatel Xamax FC9 October 2026
- W2-1FC Aarau18 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FC WIL 1900 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 14 |
| 2 | FC Winterthur | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC WIL 1900 vs FC Winterthur
- 7 August 2026FC Winterthur 5–0 FC WIL 1900Challenge League
- 10 October 2024FC Winterthur 2–2 FC WIL 1900Friendlies Clubs
- 14 September 2024FC WIL 1900 2–2 FC WinterthurSchweizer Cup
- 9 May 2022FC WIL 1900 1–1 FC WinterthurChallenge League
- 12 February 2022FC Winterthur 4–0 FC WIL 1900Challenge League
- 11 December 2021FC WIL 1900 3–5 FC WinterthurChallenge League
The result against the call
FC Winterthur won 3–0 at FC WIL 1900. The model had made a win for FC Winterthur its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: A. Marchesano 11' for FC Winterthur, A. Marchesano 19' for FC Winterthur, A. Marchesano 55' for FC Winterthur.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC WIL 1900 a 8.3% chance to finish in the bottom one: 2.4% after a win, 7.3% after a draw, 12.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.1%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.
For FC Winterthur the question was the chance to win the league, 10.0% going in: 14.2% after a win, 7.8% after a draw, 4.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.2%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Challenge League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FC WIL 1900 v FC Winterthur has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 33% / 27% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 29% / 28% / 43%: the biggest move is FC WIL 1900's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- FC WIL 1900 win29%▼ −4
- Draw28%▲ +1
- FC Winterthur win43%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.