San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Nashville SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% San Jose Earthquakes, 26% draw, 50% Nashville SC — fair odds of 4.17, 3.85 and 2.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Nashville SC at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. GunnG
- 17Jack JasinskiD
- 5D. MunieD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 18R. RobertsD
- 2J. RickettsD
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 14R. VieiraM
- 23E. LöwenM
- 19P. JuddF
- 11T. WernerF
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 36E. EdwardsG
- 87Vítor CostaD
- 20N. FernandezM
- 6I. HarkesM
- 7O. BoudaF
- 3P. MarieD
- 21N. BuckM
- 9L. JovanovićF
- 99B. SchwakeG
- 31A. NajarD
- 4J. PalaciosD
- 3M. WoledziD
- 2D. LovitzD
- 8P. YazbekM
- 16M. CorcoranM
- 7C. EspinozaM
- 10H. MukhtarM
- 14S. MohammedM
- 9S. SurridgeF
- 6B. AcostaM
- 22J. BauerD
- 41W. MadrigalF
- 5J. MaherD
- 19A. MuylM
- 1J. WillisG
- 20E. TagsethM
- 11E. SaadF
- 27R. Baker-WhitingD
Form going into San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC
San Jose Earthquakes
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Real Salt Lake15 October 2026
- D1-1away to Colorado Rapids11 October 2026
- W3-1Portland Timbers27 September 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles FC19 September 2026
- W1-0Houston Dynamo13 September 2026
Nashville SC
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Sporting Kansas City15 October 2026
- W4-1away to Austin11 October 2026
- W2-0Toronto FC27 September 2026
- W3-0Chicago Fire20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami12 September 2026
What these results say
- San Jose Earthquakes went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nashville SC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Nashville SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nashville SC won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 57 | 51 | +6 | 52 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 34 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 71 | 25 | +46 | 77 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC
- 28 April 2024Nashville SC 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 24 September 2023San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 12 June 2022Nashville SC 0–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 16 April 2022San Jose Earthquakes 2–2 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd172
Nashville SC
GoalsAssists
- S. Surridge211
- H. Mukhtar167
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Nashville SC at 50% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Hany Mukhtar 34' for Nashville SC, Preston Judd 70' for San Jose Earthquakes. On expected goals it finished 0.82–0.47.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave San Jose Earthquakes a 51.9% chance to finish in the top four: 74.6% after a win, 52.6% after a draw, 40.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 52.6%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 29% / 28% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 24% / 26% / 50%: the biggest move is Nashville SC's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- San Jose Earthquakes win24%▼ −5
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Nashville SC win50%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.