FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus Superliga prediction & result
Final score: FC Copenhagen 1-1 Aarhus.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% FC Copenhagen, 23% draw, 24% Aarhus — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Danish Superliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
FC Copenhagen at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. RamajG
- 2F. BeijmoD
- 4A. SørensenD
- 6A. MarkgráfD
- 15M. LópezD
- 33A. KrálM
- 36W. ClemM
- 20J. SuzukiM
- 10M. ElyounoussiM
- 16RobertM
- 39V. DadasonF
- 7M. CarrizoF
- 27T. DelaneyM
- 12T. MasekoF
- 21M. Emil MadsenM
- 34M. NasnasM
- 28Hunor Vajk NémethM
- 31R. RúnarssonG
- 24B. MelingD
- 44G. VianneyF
- 1J. HansenG
- 14T. MølgaardD
- 5F. TingagerD
- 3D. GrétarssonD
- 29R. CarstensenM
- 10Kristian Fredrik Malt ArnstadM
- 4M. KnudsenM
- 39Frederik EmmeryM
- 31T. BechM
- 18C. McCowattM
- 13J. SerraF
- 27S. TchamcheF
- 7M. SolbakkenM
- 25C. RöslerD
- 19E. KahlD
- 16J. JønssonM
- 21M. Hedenstad ChristiansenG
- 28J. BogereF
- 26J. AndersenD
- 8S. JørgensenM
Form going into FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus
FC Copenhagen
Superliga
- L1-2away to FC Midtjylland11 October 2026
Aarhus
Superliga
- W3-0Sonderjyske12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 12 | +17 | 32 |
| 8 | Aarhus | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus
- 1 February 2026Aarhus 4–0 FC CopenhagenFriendlies Clubs
- 30 November 2025Aarhus 2–0 FC CopenhagenSuperliga
- 8 August 2025FC Copenhagen 2–3 AarhusSuperliga
- 27 April 2025Aarhus 1–3 FC CopenhagenSuperliga
- 21 April 2025FC Copenhagen 3–1 AarhusSuperliga
- 8 February 2025Aarhus 4–3 FC CopenhagenFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: FC Copenhagen and Aarhus
FC Copenhagen
GoalsAssists
- M. Elyounoussi72
- B. Meling51
Aarhus
GoalsAssists
- J. Serra50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Copenhagen and Aarhus drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Copenhagen at 53% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Robert Silva 35' for FC Copenhagen, Janni Serra 63' for Aarhus. On expected goals it finished 2.07–0.88.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Copenhagen a 56.4% chance to finish top of the regular season: 63.0% after a win, 49.5% after a draw, 44.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 49.5%, 6.9 points lower than before the match.
For Aarhus the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 18.1% going in: 8.4% after a win, 15.6% after a draw, 21.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 15.6%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Superliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FC Copenhagen v Aarhus has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 51% / 25% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 53% / 23% / 24%: the biggest move is FC Copenhagen's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- FC Copenhagen win53%▲ +2
- Draw23%▼ −2
- Aarhus win24%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.