6 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

FC Gomel vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Premier League prediction & result

Centralnyj Stadion, Gomel
Full time2 – 0

Final score: FC Gomel 2-0 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% FC Gomel, 26% draw, 21% Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Gomel at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Gomel99%Draw1%Arsenal Dzerzhinsk0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Kirill Danilinassist: Damir·Shaikhtdinov
9'
22'
Dzambolat·Tsallagov
Daniil Silinsky
39'
⚽Timofey Simanenkaassist: Kirill Danilin
42'
45'
🔁Eduard Akunetsout: Khetag Badoev
🔁Raymond Adeolaout: Denis·Kovalevich
61'
67'
Maksim·Matveev
77'
🔁ivan oreshkevichout: Sergey Sazonchik
82'
🔁Dzambolat·Tsallagovout: V. Tkachenko
🔁Vladislav Lazarevout: Maksim Mardas
82'
🔁Timofey Simanenkaout: Yevgeni Barsukov
90'
🔁Kirill Danilinout: Roman Shapovalov
90'
Maksim Mardas
90+1'

Match stats — FC Gomel vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

57%Possession43%
8Shots3
2On target0
2Corners6

Line-ups

FC Gomel 4-2-3-1
  • 44S. KleshchukG
  • 43D. ShaykhtdinovD
  • 16I. ZayatsD
  • 90G. KukushkinD
  • 17V. MartinkevichD
  • 19D. SilinskiyM
  • 33V. SotnikovM
  • 23K. DanilinM
  • 77V. LazarevM
  • 7R. AdeolaM
  • 11T. SimanenkaF
Substitutes
  • 8E. BarsukovM
  • 22D. EmeljanovF
  • 4A. GavrilovichD
  • 49A. KaratayG
  • 21D. KovalevichM
  • 9K. LeonovichM
  • 13M. MardasF
  • 3S. MatveychikD
  • 14P. PashevichD
Coach: A. Gorovtsov
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 3-5-2
  • 30A. SorokoG
  • 41D. LutikD
  • 23D. PolyakovD
  • 4RamiresD
  • 71M. MatveevM
  • 11D. TsallagovM
  • 46V. VasilyevM
  • 77N. SotnikovM
  • 13I. OreshkevichM
  • 33V. GorbachikF
  • 90D. AntilevskiyF
Substitutes
  • 79K. BadoevM
  • 1I. SankoG
  • 10S. SazonchikM
  • 26V. TkachenkoM
  • 16A. VaschenkoG
  • 9I. VasinF
  • 19A. VeretennikovM
Coach: I. Trukhov

Form going into FC Gomel vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

FC Gomel

Premier League

  • L1-2away to FC Dnepr Mogilev31 October 2026
  • L1-2Dinamo Minsk24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Dinamo Brest17 October 2026
  • L1-5ML Vitebsk11 October 2026

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Premier League

  • W1-0Bate Borisov30 October 2026
  • D0-0FC Dnepr Mogilev25 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Dinamo Minsk19 October 2026
  • L0-1Dinamo Brest9 October 2026

What these results say

  • FC Gomel did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • FC Gomel scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • FC Gomel conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had two goals or fewer.
  • Arsenal Dzerzhinsk failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Arsenal Dzerzhinsk failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6FC Gomel2812794029+1143
12Arsenal Dzerzhinsk2869132546-2127

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Gomel vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

  • 26 June 2026Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1–1 FC GomelPremier League
  • 28 February 2026FC Gomel 4–0 Arsenal DzerzhinskFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 November 2025Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0–0 FC GomelPremier League
  • 13 June 2025FC Gomel 0–2 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
  • 30 November 2024Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1–0 FC GomelPremier League
  • 6 July 2024FC Gomel 5–0 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League

Leading scorers: FC Gomel and Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

FC Gomel

GoalsAssists

  • V. Sotnikov22

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Gomel beat Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 2–0. The model had made a win for FC Gomel its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Kirill Danilin 9' for FC Gomel, Timofey Simanenka 42' for FC Gomel.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Arsenal Dzerzhinsk a 4.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 1.3% after a draw, 6.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.4%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Gomel v Arsenal Dzerzhinsk has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 57% / 24% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 53% / 26% / 21%: the biggest move is FC Gomel's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. FC Gomel win53%▼ −4
  2. Draw26%▲ +2
  3. Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win21%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.