6 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Everton vs Coventry Premier League prediction & result

Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
Referee: Stuart Attwell
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Everton 3-1 Coventry.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Everton, 27% draw, 27% Coventry — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Everton at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Everton99%Draw1%Coventry0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

52'
⚽Yann Gboho
⚽Thierno Barryassist: Vitaliy Mykolenko
56'
⚽Thierno Barry
61'
🔁Merlin Röhlout: Jake O'Brien
73'
🔁Harrison Armstrongout: Hayden Hackney
73'
🔁Tyler Diblingout: Brennan Johnson
73'
73'
🔁Yann Gbohoout: Brandon Thomas-Asante
⚽Kiernan Dewsbury-Hallassist: Thierno Barry
81'
86'
🔁Victor Torpout: Matt Grimes
86'
🔁Jack Rudoniout: Gustavo Hamer
86'
🔁Tatsuhiro Sakamotoout: Loum Tchaouna
87'
🔁Taiwo Awoniyiout: Sidiki Cherif
Jarrad Branthwaite
88'
88'
Caleb Yirenkyi
🔁Jarrad Branthwaiteout: Michael Keane
89'
🔁Tyrique Georgeout: Charly Alcaraz
90'

Match stats — Everton vs Coventry

47%Possession53%
16Shots15
7On target4
2Corners2
2.29xG1.42

Goals against chances

Everton3 from 2.29 xGmore than the chances were worth
Coventry1 from 1.42 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Everton 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. PickfordG
  • 34M. RöhlD
  • 6J. TarkowskiD
  • 4J. BranthwaiteD
  • 16V. MykolenkoD
  • 45H. ArmstrongM
  • 37J. GarnerM
  • 20T. DiblingM
  • 8K. Dewsbury-HallM
  • 19Tyrique GeorgeM
  • 11T. BarryF
Substitutes
  • 58B. GrahamF
  • 22B. JohnsonF
  • 30H. HackneyM
  • 24C. AlcarazM
  • 23C. NørgaardM
  • 15J. O'BrienD
  • 5M. KeaneD
  • 2A. Maitland-NilesM
  • 12M. TraversG
Coach: D. Moyes
Coventry 4-2-3-1
  • 19C. RushworthG
  • 27M. van EwijkD
  • 12S. MfuniD
  • 2E. PinnockD
  • 3J. DasilvaD
  • 29V. TorpM
  • 8Caleb Marfo YirenkyiM
  • 7T. SakamotoM
  • 5J. RudoniM
  • 34Y. GbohoM
  • 14T. AwoniyiF
Substitutes
  • 23B. Thomas-AsanteF
  • 49S. CherifF
  • 25D. BentleyG
  • 20K. Kesler-HaydenD
  • 22J. LatibeaudiereD
  • 6M. GrimesM
  • 17L. TchaounaF
  • 38G. HamerM
  • 9E. SimmsF
Coach: F. Lampard

Form going into Everton vs Coventry

Everton

Premier League

  • W1-0away to Newcastle2 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Arsenal24 October 2026
  • L0-2Chelsea17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Hull City11 October 2026

Coventry

Premier League

  • W3-1Sunderland31 October 2026
  • L0-1Fulham24 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Tottenham19 October 2026
  • W4-1Newcastle12 October 2026

What these results say

  • Everton failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Everton conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Everton had two goals or fewer.
  • Coventry conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Coventry scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Coventry had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Everton104421210+216
17Coventry103071019-99

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Everton vs Coventry

  • 30 July 2024Coventry 3–0 EvertonFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Everton and Coventry

Everton

GoalsAssists

  • T. Barry61
  • K. Dewsbury-Hall31

Coventry

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Everton beat Coventry 3–1. The model had made a win for Everton its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Yann Gboho 52' for Coventry, Thierno Barry 56' for Everton, Thierno Barry 61' for Everton, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 81' for Everton. On expected goals it finished 2.29–1.42.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Everton a 7.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.6% after a win, 7.2% after a draw, 10.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.6%, 2.7 points lower than before the match.

For Coventry the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 34.8% going in: 27.1% after a win, 34.5% after a draw, 39.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.1%, 4.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.