Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Petah Tikva Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-2 Maccabi Petah Tikva.
Before kick-off the model made it 78% Maccabi Tel Aviv, 13% draw, 9% Maccabi Petah Tikva — fair odds of 1.28, 7.69 and 11.11.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Maccabi Tel Aviv at 78%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. MelikaG
- 2J. TavernierD
- 5M. CamaraD
- 13R. ShlomoD
- 11S. YehezkelD
- 28I. SissokhoM
- 77O. DavidaM
- 42Dor PeretzM
- 16G. KanichowskyM
- 29Hélio VarelaM
- 19E. MadmonF
- 41I. Ben HamoD
- 18D. GlazerM
- 33H. LayousF
- 90R. MishpatiG
- 30I. NoyM
- 25S. RosenD
- 36I. ShaharM
- 9E. SoklerF
- 45Noam LevyD
- 1D. HevronG
- 26G. DeznetD
- 6E. YaoD
- 18E. TibiD
- 22Bashar AbdachD
- 12I. BaruchD
- 9S. OwusuM
- 20I. CohenM
- 99Eyal InbrumM
- 77J. CortésM
- 53L. HazanF
- 80Y. OzM
- 27Y. KorenF
- 24L. KasaM
- 23G. HadidaM
- 39M. ErlichG
- 30O. DadyaD
- 7K. SpenceF
- 47Yaniv PeretzF
- 44P. KorreaD
Form going into Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Ligat Ha'al
- W5-0away to Hapoel Ramat Gan2 November 2026
- W6-2Hapoel Haifa24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Beitar Jerusalem19 October 2026
- D0-0Bnei Sakhnin10 October 2026
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Ligat Ha'al
- L2-5Hapoel Beer Sheva1 November 2026
- W2-1away to Hapoel Ramat Gan24 October 2026
- L1-2Maccabi Haifa17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hapoel Haifa10 October 2026
What these results say
- Maccabi Tel Aviv went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Maccabi Petah Tikva scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Maccabi Petah Tikva conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Maccabi Petah Tikva had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 24 |
| 9 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
- 21 December 2024Maccabi Tel Aviv 3–2 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 1 September 2024Maccabi Petah Tikva 0–3 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 15 July 2024Maccabi Tel Aviv 2–0 Maccabi Petah TikvaSuper Cup
- 2 April 2024Maccabi Petah Tikva 4–2 Maccabi Tel AvivState Cup
- 2 March 2024Maccabi Tel Aviv 4–0 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 24 December 2023Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–2 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Maccabi Tel Aviv and Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Tel Aviv
GoalsAssists
- Dor Peretz72
- E. Sokler51
- E. Madmon33
Maccabi Petah Tikva
GoalsAssists
- J. Cortés41
- L. Hazan31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Maccabi Tel Aviv and Maccabi Petah Tikva drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Maccabi Tel Aviv at 78% and given a draw 13%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 8 matches like this one. The goals: Sagiv Yehezkel 19' for Maccabi Tel Aviv, Guy Hadida (penalty) 52' for Maccabi Petah Tikva, Ester Sokler 90' for Maccabi Tel Aviv, Eitan Tibi 90+4' for Maccabi Petah Tikva. On expected goals it finished 3.21–1.99.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Maccabi Tel Aviv a 67.8% chance to finish top of the regular season: 69.9% after a win, 58.7% after a draw, 54.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 58.7%, 9.1 points lower than before the match.
For Maccabi Petah Tikva the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 33.8% going in: 20.3% after a win, 30.9% after a draw, 35.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 30.9%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Maccabi Tel Aviv v Maccabi Petah Tikva has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 74% / 15% / 11% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 78% / 13% / 9%: the biggest move is Maccabi Tel Aviv's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv win78%▲ +4
- Draw13%▼ −2
- Maccabi Petah Tikva win9%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.